Friday, February 27, 2015

THE MONDAY MORNING BLUES ( WHITES) AGAIN

Time for another snow refresher for the LV. Sunday night into Monday-- looks like another 2-4 inch snow event. These nuisance snow events are adding up in the snow total bucket for the year. The kids maybe out of school or a delay coming for this event?

Some weather facts: When was the last time we had no snow cover in the LV? January 23, 2015. Last winter, we snow cover from Jan 21, 2014 to Mar 10, 2014  with double the snow amount then we have now. This year has been the season of nuisance storms and not the real big snow events.. What  has been really unusual is the fact that we have had two winters back to back with snow cover cover on the ground for 30+ days. I foresee another great spring flowering season with this much moisture in the ground for the bulbs to sprout.

There is a good chance of us seeing rain next week with another storm event on Thursday. The rain/snow line is going to be near the LV again. Maybe it will melt some of the snow to beat last years snow cover record of March 10, 2014. It will be close.

Memphis is finally going to get out of the snow pattern they have been in next week with highs back up to near 70 degrees by Tuesday with thunderstorms- severe maybe? There is still a chance of snow for next Wednesday night but appears to be a slim chance at this time

Milwaukee real cold and light snow - will you ever see the grass again?

Friday, February 20, 2015

TIME TO REFRESH OUR SNOW PILES EVERYONE

In my last couple of posts, I have stated I will not post accumulations until 24 hours before the event because of the flip flopping of the models because of the cold dense air pattern that we are in.. The mid range models said we were going to have two inches of rain earlier in the week and 50 degrees tomorrow. We are now under a winter storm watch for 4-7 inches of snow. We are not done- another couple of  potential snow storms next week to boot.

The municipalities should be declaring snow/weather emergencies this evening since the snow will arrive over the weekend. Otherwise we will see a minor warm up on Sunday- near 40 degrees then back into the freezer for the rest of the week

Memphis t- storms tomorrow near 60 degrees then back to the freezer

Milwaukee- still in the icebox- minor snow accumulations

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

DO YOU LIKE POWDER SUGAR? THATS WHAT I SEE OUTSIDE THIS MORNING.

The 4-6" forecast was spot on. We were right at 4' at the house and those to the south and east of us received the 5-6" in heavier snow bands. Just waiting for the plows to clean this up. The short range models performed horribly, which is somewhat disconcerting given it usually does quite well. The others were pretty mediocre or bad, seems to be a theme this year. IMHO this is what I said in my last post about cold air- it messes with the models accuracy. The cold air was the driving force light with snow ratios over 20:1 in places this morning. Notice how the snow looks real crystallized. This is from high snow ratios. Most of the banding was over our area and north of the low pressure in Virginia.

Whats next for dinner? Another brutally cold Alberta clipper swings by tomorrow night with another 1-3" of light snow. Then by Friday morning, the coldest morning of this winter will hit with lows from -5 to -12 in the LV area.

But wait--- I am not done yet.    Another storm pops up on Saturday with more snow or wintry mix crap- maybe even rain . Still way to early for amounts as this storm model  is like a fish on land- flip flopping all over. More storm potentials for the last week of February coming up with one of the storms to be a major snow producer.

Memphis - snow and more wintry mix for you and of course more cold. Highs only in the 20's during this week. When will it warm up?  Not until late next week if you are lucky. Please enjoy it

Milwaukee - boring light snow and cold




Monday, February 16, 2015

MORE NUISANCE SNOW ON THE WAY

The confluence or suppression south for the upcoming storm event is winning the battle. 4-6"  is  the right amount according to latest model runs of real fluffy light snow which will start this evening and into Tuesday. Morning rush hour will be a pain in the rear with two hour delays a minimum and maybe another day-off for the kids. It seems whenever the snow storm pattern gets going for us in the LV, the cold dry air wins out for producing less accumulation snow events this year with less big snow storms. In other-words, we are caught in the middle.  This happened in 1994 too

The Clipper on Wednesday to bring much more colder air and perhaps another inch or two of snow.  The temps were down to -5 at the house this morning. More cold air coming by Friday morning with -5 to-10  below in spots in the LV. Another snow is expected this weekend but it is too early to forecast  until the clipper leaves on Wednesday- Best guess another 3-5 inch snow. The cold air is ripping apart the moisture as it goes over the mts so big snows look out of the picture for now.

Memphis looks like hell on the roads this morning video cams. Mostly sleet and freezing rain but should to snow before ending. More snow coming during the week

Sunday, February 15, 2015

IT IS SO BUTT COLD OUTSIDE-MORE TROUBLE BREWING

Well, how did my forecast work out for last night? Well, we received 3-4 inches of snow- I called for 2-4" . We did have blizzard conditions for about 30 minutes last night when the squall line came through. We did have thundersnow in Montgomery and York counties. We did have wind gusts near 50 mph early this morning in which most of the snow blew off the roof and drifted in places. Willow branches laying all over my backyard. Roads are drifted shut in flat areas and near whiteout conditions in some areas. The secondary roads are still snow packed. The sun was able to melt the primary roads with enough salt but they are still icy  where drifting occurred. The temps outside are still in the single digits before noon. All in all-- pretty good forecast. Whats next?

Before I say whats coming next, I want to point out something that has been critical in my forecasting this winter. The amount of cold air is totally screwing up the weather models big time.  I have seen this before back in 1994. Bitter cold air tends to mess up the computer models in every run-- 6 hour runs--because the models are not used to handle such extremes in temperature, especially with existing snow cover in our area. Computer models do not account for raditional cooling. So what does happen?  The cold air is denser and tends to move more slowly out of the picture when storm systems try to move into our area. A storm that I predict on Monday may not show up until Wednesday for example. Another issue is how much of the storm system is being literally pushed out of the way over area because of the cold dense air. With these two depending variances alone, each computer model run is and will bedifferent.

The first computer runs 5-10 days out are usually the best in catching a storm event. Between 1-3 days though, the computer models duke it out on seeing who is right though when the extreme cold air is present. That is what is happening with each and every storm event in the last 20 days. This was the case again yesterday morning when the models 1-3 days out show the storm system that I predicted for this Tuesday night out to see and leaving us with just flurries instead of the 6-12'' of snow that I have predicted. Well, guess what, the models have shown at noon today for us having between 4-6"+ snow for Tuesday with each computer run adding another 2-4". Talk about pulling your hair out. By the time the storm finally shows up on our door Tuesday, we, will under a winter storm warning for 6-12" again. All I can say is that NO STORM is a shoe-in until 48 hours until the storm event with the bitter cold around. I maybe wrong on my prediction but do please do not blame me- blame the extreme cold and snow cover.

After Tuesday event, another storm event appears for Saturday- Sunday with 4+ inches of snow. Too early for actual amounts at this time. BUT AS WARNING TO ALL MY READERS- YOU THINK IT IS COLD ON MONDAY MORNING WAIT  UNTIL THIS FRIDAY MORNING- LOWS MAY BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

Now for poor Memphis. As I said last week, the 60's were to be gone this week. You are currently under a winter storm warning for tonight into Monday- DO NOT DRIVE ANYWHERE- STAY HOME. 2-4 inches of snow sleet and freezing rain with no road treatment spells big trouble. Guess what?  Single digit lows for you this week and more snow by the weekend. Just when you thought winter was over.

Milwaukee- Cold and more cold- the usual with some light snow

Friday, February 13, 2015

BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS COMING SATURDAY NIGHT

If you have plans to go out to a nice restaurant on Valentines Day, they should be cut short. Driving conditions will be atrocious late Saturday evening with blizzard like conditions. The following conditions should exist:

1. Winds blowing 20-30 mph with higher gusts near 50 mph into Sunday morning. With 3-6 inches of snow expected with this storm, visibilities will be below 1/4 miles at times. Temps should be in the lower teens during the snowfall event so bundle up.

2. Snow ratios will be high, the snow will be real fluffy. Shoveling the snow is not advisable until late Sunday afternoon when the winds start to die down as drifting of the snow may render your shoveling useless. We may only receive two inches of snow but the drifting of the light snow maybe in feet in some areas, keeping rural roads drifted shut. Salt WILL NOT WORK with these lows temps expected, so plowing of snow will become the only way to remove the snow. The roads will be snow packed, including the major thoroughfares.

3. We have not seen conditions like this since 1994 and 1996. This will be a new experience to many kids and to drivers. This is what a true blizzard really is. The temps on Sunday will struggle to get out of the single digits and lows will be -5 to -10 in most areas with blowing snow and drifts on rooftops if we get more than  four inches of snow on Saturday night

4. Another possibility which is my favorite weather feature is the chance of THUNDERSNOW. Real good possibility of seeing this Saturday night during the heavier bursts of snow fall. A lot of potential convective features in this storm as it winds up in the Atlantic Ocean.  Do not be surprised if you hear reports of this throughout the LV and nearby areas.

5. Finally PLEASE take heed with this blog- this is a very serious situation. IMHO, not enough early warning is being given to the public right now, since many will be out driving and dining on one of the busiest restaurant nights of the year. Blizzard watches or warnings maybe issued as we get closer to the storm event. I just hope everyone gets home safely. Please keep an eye on your utilities as they are subject to extreme conditions Sunday through Monday morning. Power failures are a real possibility, especially in rural areas in this storm with the high winds projected. Its not the snow this time, it will be the winds that will cause the problems. Please read my last blog on this problem. This storm will be remembered as the 2015 Valentines Blizzard and not the 2007 Valentines Day Sleetfest which traffic grinded to a halt on RT 78 and stranded drivers for over 24 hours- which really could happen again with drifting snow and low visibilities.

Tuesday night  into Wednesday storm is still on. Models initially say between 6-12 + of snow. Still too far out for snow amounts at this time but this storm has the potential of giving us over 20" of snow pack by Thursday morning. The temps will moderate some but it will still be below freezing the rest of the week.

Memphis: As I warned you in my past blogs, the snow is coming 2-4 inches Sunday night into Tuesday and it will be cold. I told you that you would not see 60 degrees again for this upcoming week- sorry I was right. This will be an overrunning storm event so snow totals predicted now may vary at this time. 2-4 inches is my best guess right now and winter storm watches will be issued by Saturday night into Sunday warning

Milwaukee- light snow  normal butt cold with lows below zero once again- no real big snow events- just enough snow to keep it white and cover the frozen dog poop some more.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

ANOTHER PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT COMING

Snow showers Thursday may lead to a couple of inches of snow- no biggie except its the first shot of some mighty cold Arctic air that I called for in my last post.

The second shot comes Saturday with the chance of more snow and bitter Arctic air. Because its Alberta Clipper/ homogenized Miller B storm and precip is light- there is no telling at this time  if we get 2 inches or 8 inches at this point. This is because of a possible Norlun setting up near us off the coast and the high snow ratios with the bitterly cold temps. All I can tell you is that it will seem like a blizzard no matter what falls out of the sky because of the falling temps and the high winds. The snow will be really light and will drift- much better than the heavy wet snow crap we have seen thus far. The below zero night time lows start Saturday night into Monday night and highs from 9-15 degrees during the day with drifting snow on Sunday which will block some rural roads is possible.

Keep those house pipes heated, especially those on exposed walls with little insulation. A small drip of the faucet can keep them from freezing up. Its going to be frostbite weather so keep the kids warm. Luckily school will be out for most kids on Monday. Sunday will not be a good day with the wind chills in the double digits below zero. We have not experienced bitter cold temps like this since 1979,  so please keep your house warm. Cars will be hard to start and I am sure the media will hype how triple AAA was busy jumping weak batteries Monday - Tuesday morning.

The next shot is the Miller A type storm that I mentioned in my last blog. Its a couple of days later than I initially thought --Sunday- Monday  but now it starts late Monday night  night into late Tuesday night. This storm will be drawing some excitement from the news media and other weather forecasters in this area. We need to keep an eye on this because the first models out today already initially show 12+  for our area. Still to early to call amounts but I really feel this has the potential for the best snowfall of the winter with the cold air already in place. There is another storm on the horizon late next week with snow then after that it looks to warm up enough to start melting the snow we get this upcoming week.

Keep warm my friends

Saturday, February 7, 2015

IF YOU THINK IT IS COLD NOW, YOU JUST WAIT

First things first, Mondays storm is going to be wet slop again. Last of the big warmups for awhile today as well.  What you see today is the warmest  it will be for a long time. My thoughts on Monday- freezing rain and sleet with a real cold rain turning to 2-4 inches of snow. Could be real icy on Monday- school delay or even canceled a possibility. If you thought your cars would look their own color again other the "salt white or salt gray" forget it.

So why did I say that today was going to be the warmest day for awhile.  The weather patterns are going to change in the middle of the upcoming week. Instead of daytime highs in the middle to upper 30's as normal, highs will be in the teens with lows near or below zero every night for a week or more. Yes I said a week or more. And guess what, the moisture is coming too. So what does this mean?

Valentines Day will be bring more than just kisses but a lot of white chocolate for many days following.  Right now the pattern is setting up for a major Miller A snowstorm event next weekend. The analog year I use is 1958- the year I was born. So what I am saying?  In that year Morgantown PA  received 50" and Allentown 20 " from similar setups in weather patterns and cold  see link below -

Winter is far from over and in my eyes we are not even in the middle of it yet. So those in the Philly burbs who have said- this winter is a dud, you will get your wish soon enough. Lastly, with the bitter cold coming, the road and untility infrastructure is going to take a real beating. I am sure we will see the following:

1. If the pothole has opened now, in three weeks it will be a mine hole. Tires will get blown and hubcaps will be flying. Watch out for them- they will be everywhere.

2. Anyone notice how cold the water has been coming out of the faucet lately? The temps of this  water is getting mighty cold now. The ground is frozen and the frost level has fallen big time- 2-3 feet. Once the frost level gets this deep, major things start to happen like major water pipes bursting in old dilapidated cast iron lines in the roads in cities like Philly. Look at the major frost heaving going on at places like at the Giant grocery stores sidewalks and curbs and the mysterious bumps that have appeared in the road. March is going to reveal all of these problems big time with the record cold snap that is coming.

Milwaukee cold and dry

Memphis - guess what--- by the end of Valentines weekend you get into the cold and snow too


 http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/march-1958-snowstorm.html

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

OH NO!! ANOTHER MONDAY SNOW/ICE STORM COMING?

Well, instant repeat with the last Sunday/ Mondays storm coming. Five Mondays in a row with a school delay or closing Wow!. The only difference is that we have a better chance for more snow in the LV.  Still too early to predict amounts but the models indicated in the link below indicate quite a bit of snow even at a low snow ratio.18" is too hard to believe at this point.  We have been burned a couple of times already this year and these Miller B type storms are difficult to forecast with the last minute warm-ups in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Tomorrow, we will see a fresh coating of snow from another Alberta clipper- 1-3 inch snowfall once again. Nothing new here. WE will stay cold to the next storm event on Sunday.

Milwaukee- cold and wintry mix/snowy -- 2-4 inches more by next Tuesday

Memphis - cold and  some wet snow tomorrow  ---warm up to 60's later  by the weekend with rain

snow accumulation plot

Monday, February 2, 2015

I WAS OFF BY A FEW INCHES- THE FREEZING RAIN TOOK IT AWAY

I was almost right. I received nearly six inches of snow at the house- not the eight inches I was hoping for. Still could be another inch or two with the back end of the storm as the coastal forms but the freezing rain ruined my ability to use my snow thrower. This stuff will be a challenge even for good snow blowers to throw.

The flash freeze will be coming this afternoon the snow, so remove the the piles in front of the driveway before it forms a glacier. What went wrong- why not all snow?  A sharp tongue of warm air snuck into the snow event to form the coastal low that was not anticipated to stick around that long this morning. It was layered up in the atmosphere and the high just would not push it away. Hell, even Mt Pocono which received almost a foot of snow has freezing rain right now. Look at the map below-  50's in Atlantic City, low 30's for the LV and the teens toward Albany. As the coastal low moves away this afternoon, it will drag the cold air down and take the warm tongue of air with it-in a matter of hours- that's why the concern for flash freeze. Lows tonight near zero if the skies clear out quickly.

The next concern is a light snow event for an Alberta Clipper on Thursday and again early next week otherwise a brief warmup on Wednesday before going back into the freezer with lows near zero for a couple of nights. Dull but cold is the best way to explain the weather the next 5-7 days.

California will finally be getting rain this week. They need it. San Francisco did not have any rain in January- first time in their history of  recording weather. WOW. So Philly snow weenies, do not gripe- this is one of the reasons why there has been little snow in Philly. I was taught in school- where the storms come in on the Pacific Ocean coast , they usually go out at the same latitude on the Atlantic Ocean coast in the U.S. This appears to be true this year.

map of mesonet observations