Wednesday, September 30, 2015

WOW, MY PREDICTED NOREASTER TURNED INTO HURRICANE JOAQUIN

Joaquin is now a hurricane, and will likely reach major hurricane status (115 mph plus) within the next 24 to 48 hours. Greatest threat for landfall this weekend into early next week lies between the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Delmarva peninsula, although Southeast North Carolina and those in Delaware and New Jersey should monitor the storm as well. Almost everyone up and down the eastern seaboard will see heavy rain from this system regardless. Still an outside chance this can miss the East Coast entirely, but that is fading rapidly. The biggest issue is water backing up into the Cheseapeake/Delaware  Bays causing severe flooding for the Susquehanna, Assateague, James, Potomoc  and even the Delaware Rivers. Winds curving around from the southeast can align with the long fetch of the James and the Potomac, turning these rivers into funnels and driving flood waters into cities like Richmond, Colonial Beach, Alexandria, and Washington, D.C. During the August Storm of 1933 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954, the storm surges coincided with astronomical high tides, driving water levels even higher.  Hurricane Hazel would be a good comparison to the damage that can happen here. We had 90 mph wind gusts in Allentown in that storm

The potential exists for over ten inches of rain in seven days which will cause Spring Creek Rd to be closed for days and water in basements. Please take this situation seriously!!!! 

As of 9:00 am this morning, I have received 2.35 inches of rain from the first bout of rain. This rain was just a low pressure moving along an approaching front.  The front will come through tonight and Thursday will seem like the first Fall day with highs only in the 50's in the next several days with front stalled out along the coast causing more rain to form over our area 1-2 inches again. Then the possibility of Joaquin's remnants or the storm itself  hits our area with heavy rain and winds of tropical force or more.

As I stated in several facebook and email postings in the last few days, last nights rain was just enough to get the ground soaked and raise the Little Lehigh Creek to bank full. Any significant rain that falls after this point will cause major flooding, the likes we have not seen in a long time. I am hoping all the work that PPL performed in tree trimming will pay off in this potential storm event with minmal power disruption if we do get the wind fields this far north and west.

Lastly, watch your basement sump pumps, they will running fast and furious over the weekend.


Monday, September 28, 2015

REVISED TONIGHT PLEASE READ --FINALLY- SOME RAIN COMING OUR WAY

Starting tonight, much needed rain is coming our way.  The Little Lehigh Creek may actually flow out of its banks and Spring Creek Rd may go under water again in its usual spots by Thursday. The rainfall predicted of 3" to 5" for just this rain event maybe even more if the all the moisture factors come together.

It will be cool and rainy- something we have not experienced since early Spring. Just watch out for minor flooding at this time. This would be a good time to reseed your yard if needed. Also the potential of a true Nor'easter exists later this weekend- so we need to keep a keen watch.  NEW------For those comparing this upcoming weekend storm to Sandy...we have to remember the differences and how much they weight into possibilities. Sandy WAS a hurricane by the time it got pulled up by a cold front trough. This weekend storm will have a small window to perhaps strengthen. That's a big issue as the cyclonic flow around the low pressure of Sandy was strong that when the trough sucked it in, it only feeds moisture in from it. This is likely to be a different story (unless rapid strengthening occurs) that the weak depression/storm that is currently sitting off the SE coast and it gets sucked into the trough, weakens the wind field but still produces a boat load of rain and major flooding of the Little Lehigh Creek. The potential exists for over ten inches of rain in seven days which will cause Spring Creek Rd to be closed for days and water in basements. Please take this situation seriously!!!!

Lastly, its going to finally get cool after this storm/ rain event- highs only in the 60's and even high 50's in some areas. We may see a frost by late next week. The recent warm weather has caused very little leaf  color changing, in fact the leaves are just turning brown and falling off because of the extreme dry weather. The walnuts have fallen already and for the first time in my recent memory, Lichtenwalner farms along Rt 100  already harvested the corn in their fields before October because we achieved proper corn moisture drying conditions.