Thursday, December 24, 2015


Well it looks like the first crap storm happens this coming Tuesday- just like I forecasted would happen this winter with the El Nino pattern. In my December 9th blog, I said it was going to be just before Christmas- - five days off. Not bad for forecasting 20 days ahead of time. Anyway, expect to see the whole gambit of crap, couple inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain- maybe a nice accumulation of ice to boot. The December 9th blog describes this situation well. I have included the link again fyi.

After this winter event, we warm up briefly again. I see us still going into a snowy pattern by the second week of January.

Lastly, watch your bulbs. They broke the surface already in this warm weather and unless we get a good thick snow cover- bulbs will die.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015


well, the cold weather for Saturday may only bring flurries to parts of the LV AND Poconos. Then the brief shot of cold weather disappears until January. In fact, we maybe in the 60-70 degree realm for Christmas. I still expect winter to settle in for the second week of January but until then you may have to mow your grass- totally unbelievable. Anyway, enjoy the warm weather and have a MERRY CHRISTMAS.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015


Well, as many of us LV residents already know, we really have not a winter storm event thus far in this El Nino year. This is to be expected and in most El Nino winters, winter storms usually do not get cranking until the second week of January. So what does Mikey expect in the upcoming months? Here is what I see happening.

First, I see us finally gettng some winter precipitation right before Christmas. It maybe a couple of inches of snow or it could be a nor'easter- too early to call right now but we will get some white on the ground.

Second, this weekend will seem like Spring time with temperatures in the 60's and sunny. Do not get used to it as it will get cold again by Tuesday. Rain is on the horizon for early next week

Third, Many of the winter storms this winter will contain sleet and freezing rain event because of the El Nino weather pattern. I have included weather channel video link on how we will get these type of storms. When you are in an El Nino pattern, many pacific cold fronts hang up along the mid Atlantic coast with low pressures forming on them. Cold fronts come back as warm fronts and where you are located will determine who gets freezing rain, sleet and snow. Twenty-five miles makes all the difference in the world on who gets what and when. Usually in these years the Poconos get more snow and the LV gets more what I called crap while the Philly burbs gets freezing rain or plain rain.  Elevation plays a key role and that is explained in the video.

Fourth, for my readers in Memphis- could be a snowy year for you but at the same time severe weather with temps going from 70 degrees one day to near freezing the next with good chances of  heavy snow. Wisconsin friends- normal snowfall and above normal temps for you --nothing new

Lastly and this a real big concern for LMT readers - we are not out of the woods for drought conditions. Drought conditions still exist big time. The Little Lehigh Creek base flow is down considerably even for this time of the year. We have had only two rain events over one inch in three months and the creek did not even get to bank full. If we do not have snow events with a deep snow pack going into February, PADEP drought watches will likely be issued. The other issue is that any forest litter will be tinder dry in early Spring with the lack of snow cover and burning bans maybe a reality.