Thursday, December 24, 2015


Well it looks like the first crap storm happens this coming Tuesday- just like I forecasted would happen this winter with the El Nino pattern. In my December 9th blog, I said it was going to be just before Christmas- - five days off. Not bad for forecasting 20 days ahead of time. Anyway, expect to see the whole gambit of crap, couple inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain- maybe a nice accumulation of ice to boot. The December 9th blog describes this situation well. I have included the link again fyi.

After this winter event, we warm up briefly again. I see us still going into a snowy pattern by the second week of January.

Lastly, watch your bulbs. They broke the surface already in this warm weather and unless we get a good thick snow cover- bulbs will die.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015


well, the cold weather for Saturday may only bring flurries to parts of the LV AND Poconos. Then the brief shot of cold weather disappears until January. In fact, we maybe in the 60-70 degree realm for Christmas. I still expect winter to settle in for the second week of January but until then you may have to mow your grass- totally unbelievable. Anyway, enjoy the warm weather and have a MERRY CHRISTMAS.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015


Well, as many of us LV residents already know, we really have not a winter storm event thus far in this El Nino year. This is to be expected and in most El Nino winters, winter storms usually do not get cranking until the second week of January. So what does Mikey expect in the upcoming months? Here is what I see happening.

First, I see us finally gettng some winter precipitation right before Christmas. It maybe a couple of inches of snow or it could be a nor'easter- too early to call right now but we will get some white on the ground.

Second, this weekend will seem like Spring time with temperatures in the 60's and sunny. Do not get used to it as it will get cold again by Tuesday. Rain is on the horizon for early next week

Third, Many of the winter storms this winter will contain sleet and freezing rain event because of the El Nino weather pattern. I have included weather channel video link on how we will get these type of storms. When you are in an El Nino pattern, many pacific cold fronts hang up along the mid Atlantic coast with low pressures forming on them. Cold fronts come back as warm fronts and where you are located will determine who gets freezing rain, sleet and snow. Twenty-five miles makes all the difference in the world on who gets what and when. Usually in these years the Poconos get more snow and the LV gets more what I called crap while the Philly burbs gets freezing rain or plain rain.  Elevation plays a key role and that is explained in the video.

Fourth, for my readers in Memphis- could be a snowy year for you but at the same time severe weather with temps going from 70 degrees one day to near freezing the next with good chances of  heavy snow. Wisconsin friends- normal snowfall and above normal temps for you --nothing new

Lastly and this a real big concern for LMT readers - we are not out of the woods for drought conditions. Drought conditions still exist big time. The Little Lehigh Creek base flow is down considerably even for this time of the year. We have had only two rain events over one inch in three months and the creek did not even get to bank full. If we do not have snow events with a deep snow pack going into February, PADEP drought watches will likely be issued. The other issue is that any forest litter will be tinder dry in early Spring with the lack of snow cover and burning bans maybe a reality.


Wednesday, September 30, 2015


Joaquin is now a hurricane, and will likely reach major hurricane status (115 mph plus) within the next 24 to 48 hours. Greatest threat for landfall this weekend into early next week lies between the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Delmarva peninsula, although Southeast North Carolina and those in Delaware and New Jersey should monitor the storm as well. Almost everyone up and down the eastern seaboard will see heavy rain from this system regardless. Still an outside chance this can miss the East Coast entirely, but that is fading rapidly. The biggest issue is water backing up into the Cheseapeake/Delaware  Bays causing severe flooding for the Susquehanna, Assateague, James, Potomoc  and even the Delaware Rivers. Winds curving around from the southeast can align with the long fetch of the James and the Potomac, turning these rivers into funnels and driving flood waters into cities like Richmond, Colonial Beach, Alexandria, and Washington, D.C. During the August Storm of 1933 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954, the storm surges coincided with astronomical high tides, driving water levels even higher.  Hurricane Hazel would be a good comparison to the damage that can happen here. We had 90 mph wind gusts in Allentown in that storm

The potential exists for over ten inches of rain in seven days which will cause Spring Creek Rd to be closed for days and water in basements. Please take this situation seriously!!!! 

As of 9:00 am this morning, I have received 2.35 inches of rain from the first bout of rain. This rain was just a low pressure moving along an approaching front.  The front will come through tonight and Thursday will seem like the first Fall day with highs only in the 50's in the next several days with front stalled out along the coast causing more rain to form over our area 1-2 inches again. Then the possibility of Joaquin's remnants or the storm itself  hits our area with heavy rain and winds of tropical force or more.

As I stated in several facebook and email postings in the last few days, last nights rain was just enough to get the ground soaked and raise the Little Lehigh Creek to bank full. Any significant rain that falls after this point will cause major flooding, the likes we have not seen in a long time. I am hoping all the work that PPL performed in tree trimming will pay off in this potential storm event with minmal power disruption if we do get the wind fields this far north and west.

Lastly, watch your basement sump pumps, they will running fast and furious over the weekend.

Monday, September 28, 2015


Starting tonight, much needed rain is coming our way.  The Little Lehigh Creek may actually flow out of its banks and Spring Creek Rd may go under water again in its usual spots by Thursday. The rainfall predicted of 3" to 5" for just this rain event maybe even more if the all the moisture factors come together.

It will be cool and rainy- something we have not experienced since early Spring. Just watch out for minor flooding at this time. This would be a good time to reseed your yard if needed. Also the potential of a true Nor'easter exists later this weekend- so we need to keep a keen watch.  NEW------For those comparing this upcoming weekend storm to Sandy...we have to remember the differences and how much they weight into possibilities. Sandy WAS a hurricane by the time it got pulled up by a cold front trough. This weekend storm will have a small window to perhaps strengthen. That's a big issue as the cyclonic flow around the low pressure of Sandy was strong that when the trough sucked it in, it only feeds moisture in from it. This is likely to be a different story (unless rapid strengthening occurs) that the weak depression/storm that is currently sitting off the SE coast and it gets sucked into the trough, weakens the wind field but still produces a boat load of rain and major flooding of the Little Lehigh Creek. The potential exists for over ten inches of rain in seven days which will cause Spring Creek Rd to be closed for days and water in basements. Please take this situation seriously!!!!

Lastly, its going to finally get cool after this storm/ rain event- highs only in the 60's and even high 50's in some areas. We may see a frost by late next week. The recent warm weather has caused very little leaf  color changing, in fact the leaves are just turning brown and falling off because of the extreme dry weather. The walnuts have fallen already and for the first time in my recent memory, Lichtenwalner farms along Rt 100  already harvested the corn in their fields before October because we achieved proper corn moisture drying conditions.

Friday, August 14, 2015


To my readers- many people do not know what causes straight line wind damage. Other than an acutual squall line, a microburst causes wind damage and heavy flash flooding rain. Today I have provided probably the best example of a microburst in a video that I have ever seen that happened in Tuscon AZ.

Some interesting things about microbursts are that they are very localized as seen in the video, produce heavy rain and blackout conditions, wind damage and bring a plane down quicker than anything else. Just imagine a plane trying to fly through this. In Dallas in 1991, a Delta airline flight tried to fly in a microburst. The video is seen  here 

The next 90 degree heat wave starts on Saturday. Stay cool. Maybe a thunderstorm on Saturday with the warm front. WE need the rain.

Friday, July 24, 2015


The cool spell was well deserved, however we go back into the oven by Monday. The a/c will be turned on again by Saturday nigh with lows back into the upper 60's, low 70's and highs in the nineties. Pop-up gully washers are possible from Saturday through Tuesday

Many readers have been wondering about the El Nino that has been in the news. Its way to early to speculate what this means for us. Anybody who is making predictions now is foolish and has no true weather background. The best way is to wait until Novemeber. When you start to see it rain in California, then we should start to worry.

Lastly, their is a chance of a tropical storm/hurricane along the east coast this upcoming week. Its 50-50 on it affecting our weather here. Stay tuned. This could enhance our rainfall chances here big time.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015


For my friends waiting for true summer temps with highs in the 90's with high humidity and afternoon t- storms-- it's coming by the end of the weekend. After a refreshing Thursday and Friday, the oven is turned on Saturday and we start to cook on Sunday. Beware of the pop up t-storms during the weekend-just adds to the humidity and can be gully washers.  Have fun.

For my suffering friends in Memphis. I said there was going to be a thunderstorm Monday afternoon- did not think the straight line winds would be that bad--comes from a Derecho and or MCS.

Milwaukee enjoy your summer temps and rainy periods- may hit 90 on Sunday

Friday, July 10, 2015


Well, I guess I was close with predicting the tornadic cells last night-- Cabela/Hamburg area hit with an EF1 tornado. Thats pretty close in my book. Enjoy tomorrow because we go right back into the soup again on Sunday.

Wednesday, July 8, 2015


Last week we had a surprise supercell thunderstorm over us in the LV that produced severe straight line wind damage. I just want my readers to know that I expect us to be at least under a severe thunderstorm watch tomorrow by 1:30 pm - maybe even a tornado watch as the conditions may favor tornadic/supercell development. Just keep an eye to the skies wherever you are and bundle down those trash cans, patio furniture and recycling bins. Cloud to ground lightning maybe another problem and flooding rains with pea to marble size hail mixed in for good measures is a good bet.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015


I have a request to explain the "rolling thunder"
 issue last night. Here is my explanation in detail from an abbreviated facebook posted earlier. 

The reason thunder rumbles is due in part to two things. The first being, a lightning bolt is very rarely a straight line and is never equally distant from you at all points. A lightning bolt on average is 4 miles long, it zig-zags all over the place, and can have many limbs that branch out in many different directions separated by many miles. As a result, the compression waves created by each part of the lightning bolt reach you at different times. The sound wave that has traveled a greater distance will be softer and arrive later than a compression wave created by a part of the lightning bolt that was closer to you. The second thing is the compression waves (or the thunder) will bounce around and off the clouds, the ground, and other objects nearby. Much like your voice echoes in a canyon or large auditorium, so do the compression waves generated by lightning. These two things will cause some compressions waves to arrive at the same time which is why the thunder might get loud, then soften a bit, then get loud again (the rumbling we hear). If you have had a lightning bolt crash down really close to you, the thunder doesn’t rumble as much and sounds more like an explosion. That’s because the compression waves didn’t have a chance to bounce off many things before you heard it. Whereas if you were further away, you would of heard the rumbling.

Another rare phenomena was the scud cloud that appears to be a funnel cloud over Trexlertown yesterday. Even though there was a tornado warning, sometimes scud clouds appear in the frontal wall of severe thunderstorms and look like funnel clouds. There was some rotation but in IMHO, there was no funnel cloud even though some spotters say they saw a funnel cloud

Lastly, some spotters saw ball lighting between the anvils of the thunderstorms. This is extremely rare but not unheard of. When you see ball lighting, that is a good indicator of  severe thunderstorms, and cloud to cloud lightning. I am sorry I did not predict the storms, but here in Macungie we received less than .50 of rainfall from last nights rumbling thunderstorms

Wednesday, June 17, 2015


I am really apologetic to my commissioner friends and other friends but the time of talk about smart growth, farmland preservation and the cost of artificial turf  has been beaten to death over the past two years.  The residents have one major problem that we need the BOC to get a handle on now and that 10,000 trucks on RT 100 that is expected over the two years in Lower Macungie. Why you may ask?

Here are some reasons why we should be concerned:

1. RT 100, Rt 29, Mill Creek Rd, and RT 100 are the only roads that go north and south in the township. Trucks use them everyday and only Mill Creek Rd is a local road. We do not control where the trucks go and when they go on these roads as they are controlled by Penn Dot. Just imagine if we told you that you had to grocery shop and use only certain roads to get to Walmart, Redners, Weis and Aldi and you could never go to Giant, the new Whole Foods or even Wegmans. You would mad as hell. Well that has now happened. Using RT 100 will be dangerous to say the least and getting to RT 100 will become even more dangerous as residents try to use other local roads to get their local destinations. You have now taken a local road or  collector road and turned it into  an arterial road because residents do not want to use Rt 100 to simply want to avoid the trucks on this highway. That is why Mill Creek Rd and Sauerkraut Rd is becoming more of a dangerous intersection each day because Mill Creek is other only local north south road in LMT.

2. Residents will become extremely vocal right after the intersection improvements at Spring Creek and RT 100.  Why you say? Because now they realize the truck traffic is now in their own backyard. NO where on RT 100 are the residential subdivisions along RT 100 except at Ancient Oaks West, Farmington Hills and Heritage Heights that will be directly affected by this increase in truck traffic. If you notice, there are no residential subdivisions in Upper Macungie so we cannot even compare this situation to their township. and what is LMT doing about this- allowing the nuisance of more truck traffic without more restrictions for these new development.

3. Well, what should we be demanding of our LMT BOC?  Lets start with the signal at Mill Creek RD and  Sauerkraut should be in place before they break ground at the new Weis. I know we cannot demand this from the developer but  we sure the hell can ask for it to installed be asap. It will help their business greatly by making it safer for residents to get to their business.

4. LMT BOC should immediately pass an ordinace to place no U- turn and no trucks allowed signs except local delivery on Aster Rd, Columbine Rd,  Foxglove Rd, Creamery Rd, Saurekraut Rd, Mill Creek Rd and Alburtis Rd. They need to use the same signs they used in Lockridge. I should not have to go to BOC committee meetings to request this. This is a proactive move that should be presented by the BOC and be implemented asap. Just look at the guide rails on Creamery Rd. That should be enough incentive.

5. The LMT BOC should become more proactive for the safety of its residents when it comes to freight traffic. Every conceivable traffic safety precaution should be instituted- from additional signage to direct truck traffic down the correct roads to a closed loop system for signals.  I HAVE COME TO THE SIMPLE REALIZATION THAT NOT ENOUGH IS BEING DONE FOR THE RESIDENTS WHO HAVE LIVED HERE FOR THE PAST 25 YEARS AND LONGER IN THE OLDEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TOWNSHIP.

6. Lastly, as I have said before Political Wards should be created. If I get enough money, I will file a petition. It would behoove the BOC to either get on the bandwagon to promote traffic safety issues right now or face a petition for ward creation. The time of talk of smart growth and artificial fields is put on hold until we get this situation under control. The BOC needs to step to the plate and take charge of who runs our township- the developer and his warehouses or the residents who live here.

Monday, June 8, 2015


Today will be a great day for severe weather to pop up in our area- first good chance in a while. Expect tornado/severe thunderstorm watches this afternoon to be issued by the weather service. Be on guard and watch the skies and be prepared if working outdoors. The best part is we have a real good chance of heavy rain. The 2.5 inches we received last week was a million dollar rain for the farmers and landscapers not to mention greening our yellow yards.

However, thats all it did. The Little Lehigh Creek levels rose to bank full for several hours and is back down to below seasonal levels. IMHO, we are still in a moderate drought. Also as the temperatures warm back up into the low 90's this week, the vegetation will soak up any rain we get today and the soils will dry quickly. Little runoff is expected after today.

Thursday, May 28, 2015


For many years now, I have tried my best to protect the Little Lehigh Creek. After living in Southern California for 15 years, I come come to realize how we in Lower Macungie Township are blessed with one of the best drinking water sources in the entire country.

I have included a link to the new labeling requirements for bottle water in California. If you take notice, the labels must indicate the sources of water withdrawals. Please note that many come from the Lehigh Valley, especially in the LCA water system. Many of the bottlers truck in the water from New Tripoli and blend with it with LCA water as well. This begs the question- if people in California love our water so much, what the hell are we doing to protect these water sources?

This water resource within the Little Lehigh Creek Watershed  is not only for bottled water companies, but for Samuel Adams Brewery, Kraft, Ocean Spray, Coke and Bimbo Bakeries. Companies are flocking here to manufacture their products because of our clean water. And what do we do, nothing more to minimally protect the pollutants from storm water into the best drinking water source in the country

Its time for a regional storm water authority to be enacted if we want to continue to invite other water and industrial users from throughout the USA. Our storm water must remain clean, otherwise we will lose what we have worked hard to achieve. Actually the largest  storm water polluter is not the farmer or resident, its Penn DOT and its freightways. Drive along the roads and see how much sediment from eroded ditches and trash from trucks are lining our highways. This must cease. If the EPA is going to crack down on MS4 stormwater permits for municipalities, then Penn DOT must be held to the same standards. I encourage environmental groups to sue Penn Dot for their inaction.

Monday, May 25, 2015


Today was a blistering dry day with SW winds and humidities in the low 30's- felt like Southern California. This is about to change. By Thursday we may even see a thunderstorm-- cross our fingers. Please see the latest drought map link below- I am getting concerned now with the Little Lehigh Creek. If the drought continues, we will see the creek go dry by the end of  July.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015


Please see the link below. We have had less than an inch of rain since the end of March at my house.  The Little Lehigh Creek gauge is seen below. Note the mean and where we are now. At 71 cfs, we are heading into a severe drought unless we get a significant weather pattern change. I just do not see this happening on the horizon. Once we get down into 40 - 50 cfs at the gauging site, the creek will be going dry in the upper reaches of the watershed. This happened in 1965. We are not far from this point now.

I am sounding the alarm again because I am concerned that water restrictions will be in place for the residents of LMT by LCA by the end of June if the precip continues to dwindle. This will shock everyone because it appears that the media has not contacted LCA about the seriousness of this potential situation. It will be announced unexpectedly and catch many off guard.  LCA is talking about swimming issues now when we should be talking about conserving water.  I am also concerned that areas along the Little Lehigh in LMT will be go dry as the base flow disappears by July if we do not get at least 2-3 inches of rain.

What makes this drought serious is that we are going into the drought from early Spring and moisture in the air has been extremely low. We may again experience a red flag warning on Friday. Thats unheard of in late May around here. What makes matters worse is that the ground water tables really were not recharged  because the spring rains never came and the forest litter is dry. Another way you can tell it has been dry is the leaf  openings have been smaller. Look at some of the trees. The leaves are actually exhibit smaller growth which make the trees appear bare. Sycamore leaves are extremely small for this time of the year.

Lets hope it rains soon. LMT should begin preparations for drought warnings in June. The lawns are starting to turn brown where residents have mowed them too much is occurring throughout the township.

Daily discharge, cubic feet per second -- statistics for May 20 based on 69 years of record more
Most Recent
Value May 20
Median Mean 75th
34 71 79 104 115 141 319,map

Wednesday, April 29, 2015


In the next few weeks, you will hear the the media start to pick up on this potential for a drought to set in our area. We are dry the last 45 days with extremely low humidities and basically only one day of a rainfall event near one inch in this period. Why you say should we be concerned? The main reason is the same reason why it was in middle March until now-- a very progressive western pattern of low pressure systems that are dying after they reach the middle part of the Ohio Valley because of the lack of southern moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the lack of blocking to form stationary fronts near the east coast in which low pressure systems that ride these fronts and gives us heavy rains and thunderstorms.

What does this mean for our area?. LMT commissioners should keep a keen eye on the base flow of the Little Lehigh Creek. The base flow is down a lot for this time of the year. The media will start to pick up on this soon. If the pattern continues, expect LCA to  issue drought watches or warnings to protect the bottling companies again. This is not a good sign. I am hoping we can get a significant weather pattern change by middle part of May but it is not looking so hot right now.

The eighties will return by the middle part of next week-- right on cue as stated in previous posts.  Poor allergy sufferers are going to be hit hard because of the lack of significant rain to wash the pollen out of the air. If the temps get closer to the 80's, we may see some thunderstorms next week-- I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Enjoy the nice temps in the upcoming week but keep your plants watered because mother nature will only be spitting on them.

Thursday, April 23, 2015


I tried to give my readers advance warning ------here is the link for tonight.

It did snow in the Poconos yesterday. You may even see the white crap floating in the air today around the LV. Yes, it may even have frost/freeze all the way down into  Delaware the next few nights. Enjoy the cool temps- and yes this is below normal.

Monday, April 20, 2015


The warm front came through this morning with some moderate rainfall which helped douse the fire on Blue Mtn.  The sun may come out this afternoon. If it does, the temps may actually warm up to the mid- 70's Lets hope so. But with the sun out, the air becomes more unstable and heavier rain and t- storms will form- some severe. Would not be surprised to see us under a severe t-storm watch if the sun comes out this afternoon.

Remember my last post about the white crap by next week. Here is a preview for Carbon County later this week. I said we might a a frost here one of those nights. Game is still on for that frost

Saturday, April 18, 2015


Hard to believe my friends but the last week in April looks mighty cold with a possible late freeze between April 25 and May 3. May even see some snow showers in the air. I find it incredible after today's temps near 80 and sunny  but you will not see the 80's again until possibly the second week in May. In fact, I hope you like Seattle weather because that is what it will feel like. Highs in the lower to mid 50's with heavy rain on Monday through Tuesday, then sunny but highs no higher than the 60 degrees the rest of the week. May even see frost one of the mornings if the winds die down enough.

At least the fire danger will go away after Monday. Twenty percent humidity is not good this time of the year. Anyway prepare your plantings during the last week of April to be covered and I would wait until after this period to plant your tomatoes and other temp sensitive plants.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015


The willows along the Little Lehigh Creek are finally greening with buds on some of my wetland trees. The daffodils are in full bloom and the bleeding hearts are popping out of the ground. Spring has sprung.

I am amazed how much trash is along the local and state roads. Much of this is not do due littering by people but trash blowing out of the back of untarped vehicles and open bin recyclable containers. I will make a request at the LMT EAC  Board to request the Township with their proposed 10 million dollar bond money they are requesting  to provide either larger containers with lids or special stickers for the lids and trash cans of 32 gallon containers with the ability to write down the address of the house on them indicating the container is for recycling only. and do away with all open bin containers by the end of the year. This litter blows directly into the creek or is buried in the farm fields when they are tilled. This is my first step. Volunteer efforts are not enough and if you have driven on Mill Creek RD near Spring Creek Rd or on RT 100 or the RT 222 bypass it is plain disgusting.

Friday, April 10, 2015


Lets see, the marine layer never got scoured out of the area today that landed on our front door this past week. Did not feel good either- upper 30's lower 40's crap and cloudy weather. Many are asking why I said not to plant this week in my last post- this was the reason why. This was all attributed to what we call a back door cold front that hung up just south of Washington DC. In Norfolk VA today it was in the mid 80's sure the hell not here - not even out of the 50's here. Back door fronts are infamous in the spring time to hold onto the cold air longer than one day and are hard to move out of the way, even with a normal cold front approaching our area.

What is very typical in the upcoming months with back door cold fronts are as the air and ocean temps warm up, they lose their grip on controlling our weather for days and also produce good chances of severe weather as the back door cold front becomes a warm front as it retreats back north. As the warm front comes back north, even severe weather and heavy rain accompanies the warm front as it passes north of us. The sun then breaks out in the afternoon- further unstabilizing the air for severe thunderstorms to form prior to the cold front coming through. With the progressive western flow of weather this past winter, you will see more of these scenarios break out in May. The good thing is that hot dry weather is not in our foreseeable future this spring unless this pattern changes in later May.

The upcoming week features 60+ sunny to partly cloudy weather except on Monday night. We may even see a sprinkle or shower tomorrow in the pocket of cold air over us but nothing to worry about. Monday night may see some heavy downpours with rumbles of thunder as another cool front passes by. Since these are Pacific air masses, the weather should remain in the 60's to near 70 degrees even behind the fronts- thats why I call them cool fronts.

This will a good week to fertilize and over seed your yards as the soil temps start to climb out of the 40's. No nights will be below freezing this week. Great week to plant pansies and cool weather veggies. If your yard was like mine, picking up branches is a chore from this winter. The willow trees along the Little Lehigh should start to green up and budding of the trees should be in full swing along with the grasses turning green. One more good rainfall will help that greening process.

Lastly, hurricane season will be iffy this year. With a weak el nino, I am sorry to say that more east coast hurricanes will be prominent unlike last year. Weal El Nino years tend to steer the storms out of the Gulf of Mexico and toward us. In other words, we may see tropical storm flooding this year unlike the last few years.

Friday, April 3, 2015


Hopefully, we get some much needed rain tonight. This will help with the bulbs and finally start greening the grass. Do not plant anything for another couple of weeks though. The soil temps are still way below normal for this time of the year. Soil heaving is still present in the soils because of being frozen, especially on the north sides of the houses. Soil temps should be about 50 degrees before planting anything. Overnight lows are still below freezing in the forecast. Please be patient. Lastly, the buds are just now showing on some trees-we are still 2-4 weeks behind on leafing out of the trees.

I plan on attending the next EAC meeting to bring up a very serious topic with me-- littering. After yesterdays winds, I am so tired of seeing litter blown into the creek from the recycling bins with no lids. Its really bad along Spring Creek Rd and Mill Creek Rd as well. I will try to have answers at the EAC on how we can correct this issue without costing the taxpayers a lot of money.  For those who really wonder why I care so much about littering, my family was the first family to adopt a highway from 1995-2000 in LMT.  We had Rt 100 from McDonalds all the way to Spring Creek Rd. I had to give it up because of my health and because it just became to dangerous to my family with the increased truck traffic.

Thursday, March 26, 2015


Did not quite get to 60 degrees- too many clouds today. The t-storms moved in right on cue. Whats next?  Between 2-4 inches of snow over the next two days is a real good possibility. I stated this in my previous posts. The snow will cover the grass and sprouting bulbs but will be gone by Monday. Then we return back to normal temps. Still think we get one more accumulating snow before Easter. After Easter, the 70's return. Be patient , the grass will turn green after Easter- no more brown. Todays heavy downpour helped bring up the soil temps, thus greening everything in the next five days or so..

Stay warm  through the weekend.

Monday, March 23, 2015


Before we have t-storms this week, we still may see some white stuff on the ground. We will endure real cold temps tonight--lows in the upper teens.

Wednesday may produce some snow before turning to rain. Snow may coat the grass for a time before melting away.  It will then warm up on Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 60's with a chance of t-storms producing some locally heavy rain in areas. Then back to cool but sunny but highs only in the 40's.

Another and most likely the last potential winter storm for the season is still a possibility for late next week Will track this son of a gun.

Friday, March 20, 2015


Well, I was pretty good on this puppy of a snow storm. 6.5 " inches at the house- generally 5-8 inches around the LV today. Many are of you are asking are we done yet. My answer is only --maybe-- right now.

How many of you put away your snow blowers and got burned today?  The snow was heavy and wet. I saw many people using them today.  You were warned in my previous posts. At least this was a pretty snow and it sure the hell covered up any bulbs trying to bloom.

To note- one of my blog readers said I was more accurate than EPAWA this winter. Thank you for the comment. I try to be as accurate as possible but much of what I predict is mostly from past snow storms that strike our area and reviewing the information provided by the computer models to help "guide" my prediction and I emphasize the word "guide".  Computer models are a great tool for gathering and guiding atmospheric information but are not 100% factual in all cases. A sign of a good weatherman is one who stands by his weather forecast through thick and thin of the weather and analyzes what went wrong or right with his forecast. To simply state that it is going to six inches of snow 3-4 weeks on around a certain date is not just a lucky guess- it takes years to understand how weather patterns affect our area and when that particular storm will likely hit and how hard.

Speaking of storms, I said the last few days of the month looked favorable for another winter storm event a few weeks ago. This is still the case and I will be watching it closely, particularly around March 29-April2 time period.  I earlier said the 25th -27th but whats a few days. Another wet snow/rain event with temps like the last few days are possible. I am still hoping the daffodils will be up by Easter.  By the way, watch out for the potholes/water line situation. Still getting worse by the day.

Thursday, March 19, 2015


Back in the 1990's, the ABE weather service office was closed - see link below. With that closing,  the residents of the LV and the Poconos  lost the ability for accurate forecasting in the Lehigh Valley and Pocono region, especially when it comes to severe weather and winter storm events. Tomorrows winter storm will be no exception.

Many of weather friends say that I should not bash Mt. Holly NJ weather office forecasts on other weather forums but many of those friends were in elementary school or in diapers, including the meteorologists at Mt. Holly and simply do not remember how accurate the ABE weather office forecasts were when it came to these type of storm events. I do and this is sorely missed. How do I know this to be true?

In 2013, EPAWA weather organization was formed. I initially helped the  founder Bobby Martrich, set up his website. He too believed that that there was a niche to be made  because of the inaccuracies of weather forecasting made by the Mt. Holly NJ weather office for our area. Lo and behold, the EPAWA grew by leaps and bounds and now has over 200,000 followers on facebook and for his website within a few years-- that is huge. And guess what- they are pretty accurate when it comes to their forecasting ability.

Another change significant change was made in the late 1990s as well. Mt. Holly changed its criteria from issuing winter storm warnings from 4" to 6" inches in our area. Many of the younger people say so what- no big deal. Well this change was far worse than anyone expected- why do you say this Mikey?

Many municipalities rely on a winter storm warning for the basis of declaring snow emergencies. Four inches was a good figure because most municipalities will not start plowing until they have at least three inches on the pavement. This has been this way for over fifty years. Why change something that is not broken? So now what happens?

Residents become lax to the importance of removing parked cars off the roads, so municipalities have to resort to towing more vehicles off the road, which in turn infuriates the residents. Since snow emergencies are issued at six inches, if the municipality gets two or three back to back four to six inch snowstorms, the parked cars are not removed and the township cannot plow to curb to curb. As the snow piles up, streets widths because smaller and more difficult to drive down. Snow piles are located closer to the travel lanes start the  freeze and thaw cycle causing the township to expend more salt on the road to eliminate this mess, which in turn costs the residents more tax payer money. An endless cycle begins all winter long. This year was a perfect example of this where many municipalities ran out of salt because the amount of  four to six inch snowfalls that occurred in our area.  And guess what?-  these are normal snow fall events for our area.

Is there anything we can do about this?- write or petition NOAA and your state senator to change the criteria for winter storms  back to four inches for everyone in our area. Changing this criteria was stupid and continues to be stupid. There is no basis for it and all it does is cause headaches for local municipalities and dumps more salt into our streams and lakes. Hopefully after two back to back snowy winters, you would think the municipal officials would be complaining about the inaccurate forecasting that leads to expending large sums of money for their public works departments for salt applications.

Thanks for reading my rant because tomorrows storm will be the same. For the third or fourth time this year, Mt Holly office will issue a winter weather advisory when winter storm criteria will be met by the latest computer models and they again will end up issuing a winter storm warning in the middle of the storm--too late to get the parked vehicles off the road or the roads properly plowed curb to curb.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015


Well, the first snow forecast by NOAA this evening indicates between 2-6 inches on Friday for the LV. I still think some areas of the northern LV where a higher elevation is evident, may receive more-but we will see. I suggest you read my previous post on Monday though for what could make this a bigger snow event.

My crocuses bloomed yesterday in the warmer weather. The daffodils are making their way out of the ground. The temps today sure felt like January than March with the wind. Hopefully after next week our snow chances are gone but I do expect a cool rainy next few weeks.

You should start here about the tornado outbreaks by mid April. I see this season being pretty bad for the Midwest and Southeast states this spring for severe weather with the progressive weather pattern we are in. If the Pacific moisture hits California in early April, more severe weather outbreaks can be anticipated.

Monday, March 16, 2015


As my posts stated on March 6 and March 10th,  the potential existed for  at least one more snow event for March.  I stated that the media would be referencing the infamous 1958 snow storm event and hyping it up. The first award for hype comes from Channel 10 Philly tonight in their TV and twitter forecasts referencing this---

"What? Snow you say? More on the timing + temps starting @4 #NBC10. But remember this.....on March 20, 1958 we had about 10" in Philly

As I have stated before in previous posts, the possible snowstorm date was the 18-21st and I said do not put away the snow blower. All the models today pointed to an accumulating snow event that could be over 6 inches on by Saturday morning. The key is on how much snow depend on these factors:

1. When the precipitation starts, it falls as rain and sleet which turns to big heavy wet snow flakes-- dollar size. If this occurs in the early afternoon and with the current sun angle, little will accumulate on the roads but will accumulate on the grass where it is colder. After the sun goes down around 7:00 pm, the snow will start to accumulate on the paved surfaces if not treated. If they are treated, maybe later in the evening, depending on the intensity of the snowfall.

2. The later the snow starts, the more snow will accumulate on the roads. If it snows real hard with  1/4 mile visibility and we have snow banding, we can get six inches or more real quick. This situation and potential snow accumulations will be ironed in the upcoming days.

3. It is still possible we will get only rain, but doubtful. I see some snow Saturday morning on the ground. Elevation will play a big part as the higher you are located, the snow will start earlier and add up more. Its conceivable that areas around South Mountain could get a lot more snow than down in the valley.

Lets see how much the media hypes this storm up in the next few days like I predicted they would. Wednesday will also feel like winter again with highs barely above freezing. This helps set the stage for this next event

It will get warmer quickly after the snow event. Lets hope to get those daffodils blooming by the middle of April. At this rate, tree leafing out period will be delayed until the last week of  April or even later. The ground is still frozen in many areas, so the yards will not start to really green up until overnight lows stop ending up in the 30's.

Lastly, are the potholes the size of quarry pits like I said they would?  The real problem begins when the entire soil profile is thawed out which won't happen for another week or two. The sinkholes and water main breaks will really start to become a problem for our area. Watch the news and watch your driving in those water puddles- they are quarry lakes. When you see asphalt pebbles in the road, drive around them- they are a deep pothole.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015


It has now been 15 years since the JDN - Walmart EQ Board decision to allow JDN to create a concrete channel to funnel runoff  into a natural swale that is clearly incapable of handling the volume of water being accepted at Spring Creek Rd. The results are Spring Creek Rd being flooded even during the normal snow melt like the last couple of days. Here are statements of facts from this EQ Board decision:

1.The volume of storm water runoff from the Site will be somewhat larger during development than prior to development, but not enough to have a significant impact.--(WRONG)

2 PADEP did not specifically consider the quality of water discharged from the Site except for its sediment content.

3.Administrative Law Judge Labuskes conducted a site view with all parties in attendance on December 21, 2000.

4.As long as there is rain, storm water must be managed. In contrast, the NPDES program is only concerned with the period of time between the start of earthmoving and when the site is permanently stabilized.

5. It is unlikely that the runoff would pick up much sediment on the heavily vegetated golf course property, the manmade swale on school district property, or the grassy area adjacent to the creek. (WRONG)

6.The Department does not deny that it is appropriate to consider the effects of a permitted storm water discharge after it leaves a site. The Department, however, limits its review to 150 feet downstream of a site. In this case, the water reenters a manmade swale on school district property after traveling about 110 feet, so the Department looked no further than that. (WRONG)

As you can see, the Judge dropped the ball and was clearly wrong in this decision. He made a site visit on one of the driest periods of time as well to craft his decision. We all must suffer the consequences of this fateful and poorly written decision.

PADEP regulations states now in 2015 the NPDES applicant for a PADEP construction activity  must have a post construction stormwater plan in place to prevent these type of problems. The Judge could not foresee this happpening even though he was told in the hearing of this issue.I warned the EQ board in my EQ testimony about will happen if they did not consider this issue but to little avail. This situation has now been a nightmare for travelers who utilize this section of Spring Creek Rd.

What can we do now to fix this?  Two things come to mind.  First, have LMT purchase the farmland property adjacent to the Assisted Living property and Mill Creek Rd. Create recreation fields near Lower Macungie Rd and the area below the fields in the 500 year floodplain create a naturalized wetland detention facility that can control the amount of water flowing under Spring Creek Rd. Seek DCNR grants to make this a reality and use the Wildlands Conservancy to help preserve the property.

Secondly, if this does not work, place a flood gate warning system like they did near Pittsburgh PA.

PennDot and LMT  have both blame each other on who is responsible to do this floodgate approach. Someone other than me  needs to step up to the plate and just get it done. I have been trying but I have met with much resistance from both governmental entities thus far. Simply going to committee meetings is just lip service at this point in time.

Why do I bring this up now_-- because Spring Creek Rd will continue to flood this week and to make matters worse could freeze over. We really need to wake up the commissioners on this situation before someone drowns. Just like I warned that someone was going to be killed at Schoeneck Rd and Rt 100 intersection at commissioner meetings, this too will happen. I just hope it is not children trapped in a vehicle like what happened in Pittsburgh. Thanks

Tuesday, March 10, 2015


In my my last post, I said it was going to be sunny most of this week. Tonight, we have a major snow eater coming. What do I mean?  A snow eater is a light to moderate rain event tonight with dense fog forming over the snowpack.. Fog eats snow and also creates a denser fog. So drive carefully later tonight and tomorrow morning. Fog advisories maybe issued for our area

The sun comes back out late in the morning and tomorrow afternoon will again be a beautiful sunny day with highs in the 50's. Enjoy it because by this time next week, we could be looking at potential heavy rain and or snow events. 1958 will be mentioned throughout next week in the media as the weather pattern finally sets up for one last last whopper of a snowstorm potential. Please refer to my last post about this

Friday through Saturday will be primarily a moderate to heavy rainfall event that will melt the last of the remaining snow pack in our area. Flooding of the Little Lehigh Creek is expected as the ground is still mostly frozen and saturated. - 100% runoff  to the creek so Spring Creek Rd maybe flooded and or closed and flash flood/urban small stream flood advisories maybe issued depending on how much rainfall we receive. Its not out of the question we can get 1-2" of rain and the storm may start off as snow and sleet changing to all rain. Any accumulated snow will melt quickly by Saturday morning.

After this rain event the weather pattern changes slowly back to a below average weather pattern with potentials for a snow storm  around  the 18-21st and again near the 25th. Keep an eye on the media playing this up-- I like when they play this crap up and see if they mention 1958 snow storm as they hype it up. Any way drive safely tonight in the fog and watch your sump pumps on Saturday

Friday, March 6, 2015


I posted today about the warm and melting of the snow in the upcoming week. Well after looking at long range computer models this evening, this appears to be short lived if the models come to fruition as they are doing right now. Model consensus is unusually high at this time  for several significant snow storms. Historically, these type of snow storms in March are very fruitful for large snow accumulations. For example in 1958, the year I was born, southern PA had over 42  inches of heavy wet snow in a three snow events in the middle of March. A video from this storm event is seen below. So anything is possible.

I am just saying now that I believe the media will start to pick up on this situation by next weekend and playing it up. Just be on guard that winter is not over by a long shot and that those huge snow piles in the shopping centers maybe there until the middle of April or longer and planting of your garden maybe held for  a couple of weeks. DO NOT PUT AWAY YOUR SNOW PLOWS YET.

The weather patterns will start to change again starting by next Sunday( March 15th) and will produce three chances for major snow events. I say at least one of them stands a good chance of becoming another significant snowfall for our area if not all three.  Enjoy the 40-50 degree weather this week because we swing back to winter after the 15th for least another week or so. Sorry for the bad news spring lovers.

Thursday, March 5, 2015


OK, my first guess on today's storm I kept and never changed my forecast of  6-12" from my last post. Received 10" at the house today. Going to be butt cold for the next couple of days and it will below zero tonight.

The sun comes out to start the snow melting process with highs near 50 degrees by this time next week and sunshine to boot. We should start seeing grass again , especially on the south facing sides by this time next week. Time to wash your car after this weekend.

With the 6+ inches of snow cover on top of the 6+ inches of glacier, we should tie or exceed the snow cover duration for last year- really incredible this winter has been.

Now for some bad news. With this slow melt, the damages of the severity of this winter start to rear their ugly head. I am forecasting severe water main breaks throughout eastern PA and the NE US. Sinkholes will start to pop up in the LV as the ground begins to thaw out through the soil profile. And of course the potholes in the road and the lifted sidewalks and driveways . Its coming- like a thief in the night. Also , all we are going to hear about is the high utility bills in February. Many PPL customers are going to be shocked and in disbelief  by the amount of their utility bill.

Ice jam problems along the Delaware and Lehigh Rivers  will start to to be discussed and maybe a problem if we get heavy rain by next weekend.

Lastly, thanks to all of you you read my blog. I hope I have been accurate enough for you so you can prepare for any upcoming snow event.

Memphis- heading back to the 70's by next week- Wisconsin- starting to see the 40's again with periods of light snow.

Monday, March 2, 2015


Last week I said we had another good snowstorm brewing after Wednesday's rain--- Yes I said rain. Tomorrow evening we get another 1-3 inches of snow and sleet which eventually turns into rain. We also may have several hours of freezing rain as well so it will be slick out there until Wednesday morning-- a real slush fest out there on the roads. It stops raining in the morning though. Then the fun begins with highs on Wednesday just barely breaking into the 40's.  A real heat wave I say. Then its starts to rain again in the evening and eventually changing back to snow.  How much you say? Preliminary amounts indicate between 6-12 inches of snow for the LV or even more- depending on the timing of the changeover of rain to snow. Stay tuned as these amounts get finalized. Again this is just my first call but most of this year my first call has been the best guess.

This is rare pattern for the LV where rain changes to snow after a warm front come through with snow changing to rain. But nothing surprises me this year. What do expect from the weather service. A winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches crap for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then, I believe a winter storm warning for 6-12+ of snow for Wednesday night into Thursday will be issued Wednesday morning. Somewhere in between the weather service will try to squeeze in a winter storm watch but because the storms are back to back so soon (really unusual), they will just issue a winter storm warning.

The bottom drops out again Thursday into Saturday morning with highs in the mid 20's lows in the single digits.  We finally moderate later in the weekend to normal highs in the 40's to start the melting process of the glaciers in our yards and driveways. More to follow including the ice jams that will be in the news as well as the broken water mains/sinkholes as the ground starts to defrost.

Friday, February 27, 2015


Time for another snow refresher for the LV. Sunday night into Monday-- looks like another 2-4 inch snow event. These nuisance snow events are adding up in the snow total bucket for the year. The kids maybe out of school or a delay coming for this event?

Some weather facts: When was the last time we had no snow cover in the LV? January 23, 2015. Last winter, we snow cover from Jan 21, 2014 to Mar 10, 2014  with double the snow amount then we have now. This year has been the season of nuisance storms and not the real big snow events.. What  has been really unusual is the fact that we have had two winters back to back with snow cover cover on the ground for 30+ days. I foresee another great spring flowering season with this much moisture in the ground for the bulbs to sprout.

There is a good chance of us seeing rain next week with another storm event on Thursday. The rain/snow line is going to be near the LV again. Maybe it will melt some of the snow to beat last years snow cover record of March 10, 2014. It will be close.

Memphis is finally going to get out of the snow pattern they have been in next week with highs back up to near 70 degrees by Tuesday with thunderstorms- severe maybe? There is still a chance of snow for next Wednesday night but appears to be a slim chance at this time

Milwaukee real cold and light snow - will you ever see the grass again?

Friday, February 20, 2015


In my last couple of posts, I have stated I will not post accumulations until 24 hours before the event because of the flip flopping of the models because of the cold dense air pattern that we are in.. The mid range models said we were going to have two inches of rain earlier in the week and 50 degrees tomorrow. We are now under a winter storm watch for 4-7 inches of snow. We are not done- another couple of  potential snow storms next week to boot.

The municipalities should be declaring snow/weather emergencies this evening since the snow will arrive over the weekend. Otherwise we will see a minor warm up on Sunday- near 40 degrees then back into the freezer for the rest of the week

Memphis t- storms tomorrow near 60 degrees then back to the freezer

Milwaukee- still in the icebox- minor snow accumulations

Tuesday, February 17, 2015


The 4-6" forecast was spot on. We were right at 4' at the house and those to the south and east of us received the 5-6" in heavier snow bands. Just waiting for the plows to clean this up. The short range models performed horribly, which is somewhat disconcerting given it usually does quite well. The others were pretty mediocre or bad, seems to be a theme this year. IMHO this is what I said in my last post about cold air- it messes with the models accuracy. The cold air was the driving force light with snow ratios over 20:1 in places this morning. Notice how the snow looks real crystallized. This is from high snow ratios. Most of the banding was over our area and north of the low pressure in Virginia.

Whats next for dinner? Another brutally cold Alberta clipper swings by tomorrow night with another 1-3" of light snow. Then by Friday morning, the coldest morning of this winter will hit with lows from -5 to -12 in the LV area.

But wait--- I am not done yet.    Another storm pops up on Saturday with more snow or wintry mix crap- maybe even rain . Still way to early for amounts as this storm model  is like a fish on land- flip flopping all over. More storm potentials for the last week of February coming up with one of the storms to be a major snow producer.

Memphis - snow and more wintry mix for you and of course more cold. Highs only in the 20's during this week. When will it warm up?  Not until late next week if you are lucky. Please enjoy it

Milwaukee - boring light snow and cold

Monday, February 16, 2015


The confluence or suppression south for the upcoming storm event is winning the battle. 4-6"  is  the right amount according to latest model runs of real fluffy light snow which will start this evening and into Tuesday. Morning rush hour will be a pain in the rear with two hour delays a minimum and maybe another day-off for the kids. It seems whenever the snow storm pattern gets going for us in the LV, the cold dry air wins out for producing less accumulation snow events this year with less big snow storms. In other-words, we are caught in the middle.  This happened in 1994 too

The Clipper on Wednesday to bring much more colder air and perhaps another inch or two of snow.  The temps were down to -5 at the house this morning. More cold air coming by Friday morning with -5 to-10  below in spots in the LV. Another snow is expected this weekend but it is too early to forecast  until the clipper leaves on Wednesday- Best guess another 3-5 inch snow. The cold air is ripping apart the moisture as it goes over the mts so big snows look out of the picture for now.

Memphis looks like hell on the roads this morning video cams. Mostly sleet and freezing rain but should to snow before ending. More snow coming during the week

Sunday, February 15, 2015


Well, how did my forecast work out for last night? Well, we received 3-4 inches of snow- I called for 2-4" . We did have blizzard conditions for about 30 minutes last night when the squall line came through. We did have thundersnow in Montgomery and York counties. We did have wind gusts near 50 mph early this morning in which most of the snow blew off the roof and drifted in places. Willow branches laying all over my backyard. Roads are drifted shut in flat areas and near whiteout conditions in some areas. The secondary roads are still snow packed. The sun was able to melt the primary roads with enough salt but they are still icy  where drifting occurred. The temps outside are still in the single digits before noon. All in all-- pretty good forecast. Whats next?

Before I say whats coming next, I want to point out something that has been critical in my forecasting this winter. The amount of cold air is totally screwing up the weather models big time.  I have seen this before back in 1994. Bitter cold air tends to mess up the computer models in every run-- 6 hour runs--because the models are not used to handle such extremes in temperature, especially with existing snow cover in our area. Computer models do not account for raditional cooling. So what does happen?  The cold air is denser and tends to move more slowly out of the picture when storm systems try to move into our area. A storm that I predict on Monday may not show up until Wednesday for example. Another issue is how much of the storm system is being literally pushed out of the way over area because of the cold dense air. With these two depending variances alone, each computer model run is and will bedifferent.

The first computer runs 5-10 days out are usually the best in catching a storm event. Between 1-3 days though, the computer models duke it out on seeing who is right though when the extreme cold air is present. That is what is happening with each and every storm event in the last 20 days. This was the case again yesterday morning when the models 1-3 days out show the storm system that I predicted for this Tuesday night out to see and leaving us with just flurries instead of the 6-12'' of snow that I have predicted. Well, guess what, the models have shown at noon today for us having between 4-6"+ snow for Tuesday with each computer run adding another 2-4". Talk about pulling your hair out. By the time the storm finally shows up on our door Tuesday, we, will under a winter storm warning for 6-12" again. All I can say is that NO STORM is a shoe-in until 48 hours until the storm event with the bitter cold around. I maybe wrong on my prediction but do please do not blame me- blame the extreme cold and snow cover.

After Tuesday event, another storm event appears for Saturday- Sunday with 4+ inches of snow. Too early for actual amounts at this time. BUT AS WARNING TO ALL MY READERS- YOU THINK IT IS COLD ON MONDAY MORNING WAIT  UNTIL THIS FRIDAY MORNING- LOWS MAY BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

Now for poor Memphis. As I said last week, the 60's were to be gone this week. You are currently under a winter storm warning for tonight into Monday- DO NOT DRIVE ANYWHERE- STAY HOME. 2-4 inches of snow sleet and freezing rain with no road treatment spells big trouble. Guess what?  Single digit lows for you this week and more snow by the weekend. Just when you thought winter was over.

Milwaukee- Cold and more cold- the usual with some light snow

Friday, February 13, 2015


If you have plans to go out to a nice restaurant on Valentines Day, they should be cut short. Driving conditions will be atrocious late Saturday evening with blizzard like conditions. The following conditions should exist:

1. Winds blowing 20-30 mph with higher gusts near 50 mph into Sunday morning. With 3-6 inches of snow expected with this storm, visibilities will be below 1/4 miles at times. Temps should be in the lower teens during the snowfall event so bundle up.

2. Snow ratios will be high, the snow will be real fluffy. Shoveling the snow is not advisable until late Sunday afternoon when the winds start to die down as drifting of the snow may render your shoveling useless. We may only receive two inches of snow but the drifting of the light snow maybe in feet in some areas, keeping rural roads drifted shut. Salt WILL NOT WORK with these lows temps expected, so plowing of snow will become the only way to remove the snow. The roads will be snow packed, including the major thoroughfares.

3. We have not seen conditions like this since 1994 and 1996. This will be a new experience to many kids and to drivers. This is what a true blizzard really is. The temps on Sunday will struggle to get out of the single digits and lows will be -5 to -10 in most areas with blowing snow and drifts on rooftops if we get more than  four inches of snow on Saturday night

4. Another possibility which is my favorite weather feature is the chance of THUNDERSNOW. Real good possibility of seeing this Saturday night during the heavier bursts of snow fall. A lot of potential convective features in this storm as it winds up in the Atlantic Ocean.  Do not be surprised if you hear reports of this throughout the LV and nearby areas.

5. Finally PLEASE take heed with this blog- this is a very serious situation. IMHO, not enough early warning is being given to the public right now, since many will be out driving and dining on one of the busiest restaurant nights of the year. Blizzard watches or warnings maybe issued as we get closer to the storm event. I just hope everyone gets home safely. Please keep an eye on your utilities as they are subject to extreme conditions Sunday through Monday morning. Power failures are a real possibility, especially in rural areas in this storm with the high winds projected. Its not the snow this time, it will be the winds that will cause the problems. Please read my last blog on this problem. This storm will be remembered as the 2015 Valentines Blizzard and not the 2007 Valentines Day Sleetfest which traffic grinded to a halt on RT 78 and stranded drivers for over 24 hours- which really could happen again with drifting snow and low visibilities.

Tuesday night  into Wednesday storm is still on. Models initially say between 6-12 + of snow. Still too far out for snow amounts at this time but this storm has the potential of giving us over 20" of snow pack by Thursday morning. The temps will moderate some but it will still be below freezing the rest of the week.

Memphis: As I warned you in my past blogs, the snow is coming 2-4 inches Sunday night into Tuesday and it will be cold. I told you that you would not see 60 degrees again for this upcoming week- sorry I was right. This will be an overrunning storm event so snow totals predicted now may vary at this time. 2-4 inches is my best guess right now and winter storm watches will be issued by Saturday night into Sunday warning

Milwaukee- light snow  normal butt cold with lows below zero once again- no real big snow events- just enough snow to keep it white and cover the frozen dog poop some more.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015


Snow showers Thursday may lead to a couple of inches of snow- no biggie except its the first shot of some mighty cold Arctic air that I called for in my last post.

The second shot comes Saturday with the chance of more snow and bitter Arctic air. Because its Alberta Clipper/ homogenized Miller B storm and precip is light- there is no telling at this time  if we get 2 inches or 8 inches at this point. This is because of a possible Norlun setting up near us off the coast and the high snow ratios with the bitterly cold temps. All I can tell you is that it will seem like a blizzard no matter what falls out of the sky because of the falling temps and the high winds. The snow will be really light and will drift- much better than the heavy wet snow crap we have seen thus far. The below zero night time lows start Saturday night into Monday night and highs from 9-15 degrees during the day with drifting snow on Sunday which will block some rural roads is possible.

Keep those house pipes heated, especially those on exposed walls with little insulation. A small drip of the faucet can keep them from freezing up. Its going to be frostbite weather so keep the kids warm. Luckily school will be out for most kids on Monday. Sunday will not be a good day with the wind chills in the double digits below zero. We have not experienced bitter cold temps like this since 1979,  so please keep your house warm. Cars will be hard to start and I am sure the media will hype how triple AAA was busy jumping weak batteries Monday - Tuesday morning.

The next shot is the Miller A type storm that I mentioned in my last blog. Its a couple of days later than I initially thought --Sunday- Monday  but now it starts late Monday night  night into late Tuesday night. This storm will be drawing some excitement from the news media and other weather forecasters in this area. We need to keep an eye on this because the first models out today already initially show 12+  for our area. Still to early to call amounts but I really feel this has the potential for the best snowfall of the winter with the cold air already in place. There is another storm on the horizon late next week with snow then after that it looks to warm up enough to start melting the snow we get this upcoming week.

Keep warm my friends

Saturday, February 7, 2015


First things first, Mondays storm is going to be wet slop again. Last of the big warmups for awhile today as well.  What you see today is the warmest  it will be for a long time. My thoughts on Monday- freezing rain and sleet with a real cold rain turning to 2-4 inches of snow. Could be real icy on Monday- school delay or even canceled a possibility. If you thought your cars would look their own color again other the "salt white or salt gray" forget it.

So why did I say that today was going to be the warmest day for awhile.  The weather patterns are going to change in the middle of the upcoming week. Instead of daytime highs in the middle to upper 30's as normal, highs will be in the teens with lows near or below zero every night for a week or more. Yes I said a week or more. And guess what, the moisture is coming too. So what does this mean?

Valentines Day will be bring more than just kisses but a lot of white chocolate for many days following.  Right now the pattern is setting up for a major Miller A snowstorm event next weekend. The analog year I use is 1958- the year I was born. So what I am saying?  In that year Morgantown PA  received 50" and Allentown 20 " from similar setups in weather patterns and cold  see link below -

Winter is far from over and in my eyes we are not even in the middle of it yet. So those in the Philly burbs who have said- this winter is a dud, you will get your wish soon enough. Lastly, with the bitter cold coming, the road and untility infrastructure is going to take a real beating. I am sure we will see the following:

1. If the pothole has opened now, in three weeks it will be a mine hole. Tires will get blown and hubcaps will be flying. Watch out for them- they will be everywhere.

2. Anyone notice how cold the water has been coming out of the faucet lately? The temps of this  water is getting mighty cold now. The ground is frozen and the frost level has fallen big time- 2-3 feet. Once the frost level gets this deep, major things start to happen like major water pipes bursting in old dilapidated cast iron lines in the roads in cities like Philly. Look at the major frost heaving going on at places like at the Giant grocery stores sidewalks and curbs and the mysterious bumps that have appeared in the road. March is going to reveal all of these problems big time with the record cold snap that is coming.

Milwaukee cold and dry

Memphis - guess what--- by the end of Valentines weekend you get into the cold and snow too

Wednesday, February 4, 2015


Well, instant repeat with the last Sunday/ Mondays storm coming. Five Mondays in a row with a school delay or closing Wow!. The only difference is that we have a better chance for more snow in the LV.  Still too early to predict amounts but the models indicated in the link below indicate quite a bit of snow even at a low snow ratio.18" is too hard to believe at this point.  We have been burned a couple of times already this year and these Miller B type storms are difficult to forecast with the last minute warm-ups in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Tomorrow, we will see a fresh coating of snow from another Alberta clipper- 1-3 inch snowfall once again. Nothing new here. WE will stay cold to the next storm event on Sunday.

Milwaukee- cold and wintry mix/snowy -- 2-4 inches more by next Tuesday

Memphis - cold and  some wet snow tomorrow  ---warm up to 60's later  by the weekend with rain

snow accumulation plot

Monday, February 2, 2015


I was almost right. I received nearly six inches of snow at the house- not the eight inches I was hoping for. Still could be another inch or two with the back end of the storm as the coastal forms but the freezing rain ruined my ability to use my snow thrower. This stuff will be a challenge even for good snow blowers to throw.

The flash freeze will be coming this afternoon the snow, so remove the the piles in front of the driveway before it forms a glacier. What went wrong- why not all snow?  A sharp tongue of warm air snuck into the snow event to form the coastal low that was not anticipated to stick around that long this morning. It was layered up in the atmosphere and the high just would not push it away. Hell, even Mt Pocono which received almost a foot of snow has freezing rain right now. Look at the map below-  50's in Atlantic City, low 30's for the LV and the teens toward Albany. As the coastal low moves away this afternoon, it will drag the cold air down and take the warm tongue of air with it-in a matter of hours- that's why the concern for flash freeze. Lows tonight near zero if the skies clear out quickly.

The next concern is a light snow event for an Alberta Clipper on Thursday and again early next week otherwise a brief warmup on Wednesday before going back into the freezer with lows near zero for a couple of nights. Dull but cold is the best way to explain the weather the next 5-7 days.

California will finally be getting rain this week. They need it. San Francisco did not have any rain in January- first time in their history of  recording weather. WOW. So Philly snow weenies, do not gripe- this is one of the reasons why there has been little snow in Philly. I was taught in school- where the storms come in on the Pacific Ocean coast , they usually go out at the same latitude on the Atlantic Ocean coast in the U.S. This appears to be true this year.

map of mesonet observations

Saturday, January 31, 2015


The winter storm watch was issued this morning from 6-12 throughout all of the LV is right on schedule. Winter storm warnings coming next by tomorrow morning, maybe earlier this evening since its Superbowl weekend.

My concern now is that the weather service is saying the possibility of sleet or freezing rain mixed in. In reality what does that tell me?

1. The low pressures are carrying a lot of warm air aloft. This means that there could be a convective nature to this storm. I say goody goody- why ---because there could be thundersnow when sleet is involved. The typical scenario is that the snow band is so heavy that it can meet its own demise with sleet mixed in. What are you talking about?  Imagine its summertime and you have a thunderstorm overhead . The rain comes down in huge rain drops with lots of thunder and lighting initially and even some hail but the big rain drops suddenly stop and it turns back to just a heavy rain. This somewhat explains this scenario that you can relate to. The sleet comes down very briefly, taking away the heavy accumulating snow flakes that were falling. I have seen this many times in my visual observations when a coastal storm is trying to get its act together in the Delmarva area. When I say heavy snow flakes- I mean the dollar size snow flakes too. So less snow accumulates and the sleet weighs down the snow to show less of a snow accumulation on the ground.

2. Heavy snow bands usually occur near the mixing line of the rain and snow, usually within 20-50 miles of the actual line. Really huge (bigger than dollar size) snow flakes fall cutting visibility down to less that a 1/4 mile-(you cannot see across the street scenario). This is called the "Lollipop zone or Jackpot zone"  I see this zone setting up somewhere near or in the LV.

3. Everyone who is forecasting  is concerned where the rain/snow line sets up and that's why the snow accumulations will vary greatly in the weather forecasts over the next 24 hours. Its what I call a "Nowcasting snow storm event" because where these heavy snow bands set up is really up in the air --literally speaking. Watching the weather radar will become the actual forecast as this storm evolves.

I want to briefly talk about whom I call the "Philly snow model huggers" They live and die with each computer model run, especially the weather models that show them with the most snow. The TV media tends to hype as they do this as well. These TV media forecasters and "youngsters" who have no  idea what true meteorology really is and by thinking they know all the weather models out there and usually never use analogs or historical meteorology in their determination of what real really could or should  happen in each snow event. Have I ever heard WFMZ say "well in 1983 for example  this same type of snow event unfolded and this is WHY we are saying this snow amount?  Hell no, which tells me they have NOT done their research on the storm and just followed  computer models given to them by Accu-Wrong

I am talking why historical homework must be done for  these type of snow events as they unfold. I want to say that I am not predicting 21 inches of snow for the upcoming event but how past storm events evolved can lead to better forecasting.

Lastly, which is the most important thing that I have seen in the past four or five years with this upcoming storm event. It appears this storm event is  returning us back to normalcy when it comes to forecasting typical snow storms, where confluence is a dominate feature in determining the outcomeof the storm event in the LV. In other words the LV and Poconos gets heavy snow and Philly gets zippo in most cases. Even Harrisburg is getting on the action this time to end their snow drought.

Friday, January 30, 2015


As I said yesterday, we got our 2 inches of snow but it came in waves. The snow melted with sun coming out this morning but there is more snow showers this afternoon with the passage of the the arctic cold front. Will become breezy and extremely cold with wind chill advisories being issued with lows near zero again tonight.

All eyes turn toward the superbowl sunday  weather feature . I still believe we will receive between 8-12 inches of snow but some models have indicated more than that, especially if we are close to the rain snow line - the lollipop zone where we could experience banding of snow and even thundersnow. I have attached models for your review. The double barrel low pressure in the Euro model will slow down and will run into a  high pressure and basically stalls like an airplane. The low on the coast takes over and gets stronger until the high pressure moves away. This scenario is being played out like the 1983 storm event in which the LV received 23 inches of snow. Do I believe this is possible- maybe but  realistically I feel safer with my 8-12 inches at this time but this situation does need to be monitored. Models are agreement for some warning criteria snow event and for  issuance of snow emergencies.

The bottom really drops out with overnight lows below zero for Monday and Tuesday nights. Keep warm everyone

Thursday, January 29, 2015


Well this evening we should have the Alberta Clipper dump between 2-4 inches of snow on us. No biggie- just enough to cover the bare spots in the yard if you have any. The snow will start in about an hour and last through early morning. Expect two hour delays for school in the morning.

This Alberta Clipper is paving the way to a significant storm on Sunday night into Monday night. My first good guess right now- 8-14 inches of snow for us in LMT based on my past experiences of how this storm is currently evolving. My first guesses have been spot on all year- so this guess probably should be my final call too. The storm could still miss us but the latest models (for what they are worth as far as snow accumulations go) says we will get some snow-- how much is the big question? The grocery stores will be jammed on Friday evening through Saturday night for those last minute snack shoppers. The winter storm watch should go up by Saturday morning and the warning go up by Sunday morning to make shopping even more hectic on Saturday through Sunday afternoon if the storm evolves as predicted. The saving grace with this next storm- light fluffy snow but it may blow and drift in flat places- especially on flat roof tops. The temps will only be in the teens to low twenties during the entire snow event- so the roads will be covered quickly and salt may not help. Drive home safely Sunday night after the game.

Was it cold enough for you  last night?  It was down to zero at my house and in several flatter colder valleys near the Little Lehigh Creek, the lows were below zero. Tuesday morning after this next snowstorm will bring overnight lows from -5 to -10 below zero with windchill advisories and more icicles on your houses. Winter is truly here.

But I am not finished yet, possible yet another snow storm on next Thursday evening. I will keep you up to speed.

For the snow weenies, have fun with your snow but you may the price with flooding. More to come later.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015


I want you to please remember what I first said in the last few posts before the great fail of  the 2015 blizzard (what I am  first calling before the media takes over SNOWGATE 15) This storm was prone to fail before it even started- I mention the bust potential was still high in several posts. AGAIN MY FIRST FORECAST IS THE BEST FORECAST STRUCK AGAIN. Sure I said that we would get some snow- but honestly that was the snow weenie inside of me hoping for the whiteout. What we received in reality was just the a little bit more than I originally expected 3.2" to 4" for us in previous posts. What happened to make this storm poop out over us?

First in simple terms most can understand, Miller B type storm events are two low pressure  systems competing for the same moisture, ground and energy over our area and when one loses, it robs the other of all of its energy. Usually in this robbing of energy, the area in the middle gets shafted as the storm on the coast gets all of the energy from the low over the Ohio Valley plus all of the moisture from the Atlantic Ocean leaving no snow for someone in the middle. That is some what happened last night as the low in the Ohio Valley into western PA did not want to die so easily -- living on its dying breath so to speak. It kept the energy longer and robbed the energy to send back bands of heavy snow over us from the coastal low in the Atlantic Ocean. The low in the Ohio Valley formed what we called a deformation band. Look at the radar image below from 2014- notice all the snow fall in western PA- thats exactly what happened last night . Notice in this picture where the dry slot was-  over us.

Now what? Well another Alberta clipper is coming for Thursday night into Friday with maybe a couple more inches of snow for us. I am watching for next Monday nights storm which could drop more significant snow on us since it is coming from the south instead of from the north( Miller A type of storm). Still too far to estimate at this time

Expect the temps to drop tonight  through Sunday. Lows in the single digits  and maybe below zero on Friday and Saturday night - wind chills below zero.

Sorry was not as accurate as usual but one thing that has been learned by all snow weenies- DO NOT TRUST MILLER B STORMS NO MATTER WHAT THE MODELS SAY AND DO NOT RELY ON ONE SINGLE WEATHER MODEL EVEN IT IS THE EURO MODEL.

Milwaukee -- Albera clipper snow and sleet 2-4 inches Wednesday then back to the freezer

Memphis -- a couple of showers on Wednesday other wise normal  50 highs  low 30's lows

Sunday, January 25, 2015


As seen below is the European weather model of potential snow accumulations over the next 72 hours- not counting what is on the ground already and what will come on on Thursday.  Nearly two feet of snow is possible for our area. LMT and other municipalities- let your drivers rest up today they will need it. One big thing to note:


We will see drifting snow with rural roads impassable for a few days with cold wind chills - zero or below after the storm passage.

I warn my readers that we could still bust severely if we are dry slotted on the snow amounts and only get six inches here in the LV, but the drifting will still go on.  I say this only for the fact that this has happened in the past where NYC gets 20 inches and we get only six inches and that possibility remains high at this time. So please do not get upset if you are a snow weenie. Even though the chances  are still high that this could happen it appears unlikely at this time. Weather is a a fluid science and it can change on a dime. Thanks


I live in a Townhouse community with limited parking. With the projected heavy snowfall, many municipalities will be declaring a snow emergency this evening and rightfully so. Getting vehicles off the streets will make plowing much easier for the snow plow drivers.

Towing these vehicles will be no excuse for illegal parkers this time. You know its coming- get the vehicle off the street or it will be towed. No crying and whining in LMT.  THEY WILL BE TOWED.  This storm has the potential to be the biggest widespread storm event since Sandy and the media is advertising the living hell out of it.

I see the responsibility of LMT to strictly enforce this weather emergency. I also envision LMT to do their part and bring out the snow blower for snow removal in the townhouse complexes after Thursdays storm, again with the same emphasis they place on illegally parked vehicles. The snow piles could be 3 feet or higher in the middle of the roads with one lane available. All of this should be advertised on facebook and in the media on when they will be removing the snow.

Some caution expressed here for driving. Drivers must become accustomed to snow piled up at the intersections. Please take it easy pulling out into the intersections. Please keep the storm inlets and fire hydrants cleared. When the snow melts, it must drain off the road to prevent black ice

Lastly, many  so called weather amateurs believe when all this snow melts, it will do so over a long period of time. WRONG ANSWER. Historically, we can and should expect quick thaws and rain events between the snowstorm events. If we would get 1-2 inches of rain on a 30 + inch snow pack, basements will be flooded ----no if and or buts. Be prepared and check your sump pumps to make sure they still work. I would suggest if you have time, try to keep your downspouts cleared out and pile the snow away from your basement  into the middle of your yard if possible. Also make sure you watch the house gutters-  we will have icicles big time in the next few weeks. Any loose gutters will becoming down. Flat rooms need to be shoveled and if you have a snow rake, be prepared to use it. Lastly, for those who travel Spring Creek Rd. If we have a thaw after all of this snow, it will flood for a long duration and will be closed. Do not blame LMT for this- mother nature fault.


I guess the remote possibility that I mention yesterday morning is coming to fruition. Blizzard watches for Long Island and NYC up to Boston. So what does this mean to us?

As usual, we are on the edge of  some heavy snow. As the Alberta Clipper comes by tomorrow morning into the afternoon, it will drop up to six more inches of snow on us. As this storm goes off the coast, instead of going out to sea, it stalls and forms another low and intensifies. This is called a Miller B storm. The storm hands off its energy like a baton in a track meet and increases its energy.

What you will see is rare for us here in the LV. Instead of heavy snow bands coming from the south or west, they come from the the north and east and to make even rarer, it will be all snow instead of the usual sleet and mixed crap. These heavy bands of snow can set up over one area like they did Friday night and dump( or one some pros like me say- vomit heavy snow). You may also see thundersnow in the heavier snow bands.

On the downside, when you have storm like this, there is always a dry air pocket that forms and some locations get much less snow. Where this dry air forms(we call slotting or shaft zone) could set up between the LV and the coast. Thats the uncertainty of the forecast.

What could happen for us? 4-6 inches of snow by Monday night, with another 6-12 inches on Monday night into Tuesday for a grand total of  26 inches of snow on the ground by Tuesday afternoon. That is why I told you in previous posts to move the snow into yards.

But I am not finished, Thursday, another Alberta clipper could do the same thing and drop another 6+ inches of snow on us giving us close to 3 feet of snow on the ground

My concerns with this storm- drifting of snow but lighter snow will make rural roads impassable for more than 12 hours. Cold temps near zero on Wednesday night with wind chills. Stranded cars on interstates in whiteout conditions, airports closed and the transportation system in the NE virtually shut down.

Lastly, this week has the potential of seeing the most snow on the ground since 1996. Flooding maybe a problem in a quick thaw.

I will have more updates later this evening.

Saturday, January 24, 2015


Last nights snow is an example of the weather service being too conservative. When conditions and models pointed to a winter storm event yesterday afternoon, they failed to issue a winter storm warning appropriately. They issued this warning at 3:30 am this morning-- so why am I griping?

In the past 40 years of following weather forecasts, there is one thing I have learned. When there is a 50% chance of six inches of snow regardless if the projected amounts are even close to six inches, a winter storm warning should be issued, preferably at the evening update so people can get home safely. The public now takes weather advisories with a grain of salt. There are no longer travelers advisories issued which had taken the place of winter storm warnings back in the 70's and 80's. They were issued when four inches of snow fell because most vehicles were rear wheel driven vehicles (front wheel drive vehicles were virtually non-existent as well as four wheel drive vehicles back then) and drove poorly in snow covered roads  Drivers now think they can safely drive in six inches of packed snow with these new type of vehicles. This driving philosophy must change. Safety is my overall concern.

But the biggest issue is that NOAA is playing Russian roulette with statistical  forecasting and basing them on "confidence levels" . IMHO, who gives a sh*& about confidence levels, if their is a remote chance, then issue the warning before the storm event, not during the storm event. Like who cares if NOAA was one or two inches off on their predicted amounts? The basic question is that did my family arrive at their destinations safely with adequate notification of the poor driving conditions? Sometimes being TOO precise with snow amounts is more dangerous than being overly cautious. NOAA needs to get back in the game of providing adequate winter storm warnings and making them a serious issue again. Too many drivers take it for granted that they can drive anywhere and faster to their destination in snow covered roads because they have a four wheel drive vehicle. Tell that to the family members who recently buried their loved ones in Michigan two weeks ago in the horrendous 200 car pileup.Enough is enough.

I have taken steps to contact my state senators about the FCC banning automobile commercials which distinctly show vehicles driving extremely fast on snow covered highways. This gives drivers the false impression that their four wheel drive vehicles can drive in any winter conditions. This is just like gun and cigarette commercials, instead using the vehicle as the weapon of bodily harm. This has to stop otherwise, you will continue to see multicar pileups on our interstates like what happened this past week down in Philly. I urge you to contact your state representative on this issue, otherwise it will only get worse.


Last nights now came right on cue with my first prediction from last Tuesday 9.3 inches at my house. We had 8 inches by 4:00 this morning. I was out blowing the snow at 3:00 am, huge dollar size flakes with low visibility- result of the meso-banding that occurred right over western Lehigh and eastern Berks Counties. It was so wet of a snow.  Bear Creek resort  is smiling today.

Whats next? Another Alberta clipper capable of producing a 3-6 inch snowfall over us on Sunday night through Monday. After this back breaking snowfall, you are probably will appreciate this snow- with higher snow ratios, the snow will be considerably lighter and fluffier. Easy to shovel and snow blow.

I warn all of my readers- get this white crap off the driveway on Monday afternoon because it will become an iceberg after Monday night. Expect below zero wind chills Tuesday night.

Rest of the week looks sunny and cold in the upper 20's for highs, single digits for low.

I want to throw this out even though it may happen but there is a remote possibility of a blizzard if the Alberta clipper forms a low on Monday evening to areas closer to the coast areas especially northeast of the LV  could see upwards of 12-16 inches of snow, like Long Island or Boston. This could bring more snow to us but I want to throw it out there now in case it does really happen.  Stay warm