Thursday, January 28, 2016

OUT TO SEA- CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

Everyone needs a break from shoveling. Other than a period of light snow tomorrow- a brief but much needed warm up is on the way-the infamous January thaw takes place for us in the LV.

Next week,we will see temps rise into the 50's- goodbye to much of the snow with some rain showers and of course the real snow eater- dense fog. Fog will destroy a snowpack faster than anything else So be careful driving this weekend into next week as the snow melts. I expect dense fog advisories over several days.

But do not hang up the shovel or blowers just yet.  Another round of wintry weather comes our way between February 5-10 as the weather pattern reloads for additional possibilities for  6"+ snow storms. We may see the grass only briefly next week but I would rather see a slow melt now. I will keep you updated later next week on these possibilities after the cold front goes through to bring the temps from the middle 50's back down into the 20's and 30's for highs. Its after the cold front goes by, usually 2-3 days later we get the potential snowstorm.

I want to personally thank Lower Macungie Township and its staff  for the great job on notifying its residents about the weather emergency and for plowing and removable of snow. Planning and being on the ball went along way in this storm event, unlike Allentown which completely dropped the ball.


Sunday, January 24, 2016

READY FOR SOME MORE?

Friday into Saturday is starting to look promising if you like more snow  Yes, a cold front is crossing on Wed. nite with a minor snowfall but a fresh high will be needed to keep the arctic air in place: "Predict the high, predict the snow." Ok, what am I seeing so far?
I can track the energy on the satellite... mainly on the water vapor loop imagery. And the new low pressure system  forming over the Gulf of Mexico in this time frame is not the most ideal route but if continues its heading generally NE/NNE over the Gulf, I'm ok with it. I noticed the low redevelops in the left exit region of the southern jet stream off the NC coast, which is very good because of the warmer waters in this area. The Euro model  ensembles show many of the low pressures sampling to the west along the coast at this time.
As for the required high pressure to make this work, I noticed that the Pacific high and an Arctic high (located due N of the AK-Canadian border) will interact. I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.
BOTTOM LINE
This storm will form.  I'm liking the set-up, considering we're five days out, but more agreement and more ideal circumstances (high to the N & nor'easter track near the Carolinas) needs to occur by Tuesday evening.  Note that the 1993 Superstorm is a good analogue to this event, but be careful how you communicate all this at this time. It could just go out to sea and not affect us as well . But as I said in my posts in facebook, you must plan for where you might have to put another 12+ inches of snow.

The next few days, homeowners insurance claims will be made with water damage from the icicles and snow weight. Will not be surprised if we are declared a federal disaster area, especially if we get another storm.







Friday, January 22, 2016

LATEST UPDATE- SHOULD HAVE STUCK WITH MY ORIGINAL THOUGHTS- I DO THIS ALL THE TIME

This was my post on Monday in italics below. Please notice that I originally stated  18-24 inches of snow for this event. The only changes to my original post was the starting times and that I thought more dry air would be entrained and give us less snow as depicted in the models on Thursday morning, which I reduced to 14 inches. Now I see everyone is seeing it my way and have raised their snow totals up in the past 12 hours. My first guess appears to be the best guess and I base this on weather history such as how the 1996 storm unfolded. Even tonight like the 1996 storm snow has been reported from Memphis to the panhandle of Florida. 

What should we expect now as final call ------actually my first call on my Monday's blog below and depicted the original snow accumulation map below, except the ending time will be Sunday afternoon. Thats the best I can give you now. Keep on eye on the thundersnow too.

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday morning into the afternoon- picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the road by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay.

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer--- snow will start falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals

3. The storm will finally be finished by Saturday evening but not after  between 18-24 inches of snow for us in the LV with lollipops of three feet. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 10 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds.

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined Thursday afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townshouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still three days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amount. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then. If I wrong - lamb baste me for I would deserve it.  Good luck and will keep you apprised of future changes as the storm progresses

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

UPDATE: BLIZZARD OF 2016 - CHANGES IN RED

MY ORIGINAL PREDICTION IS STILL ON TRACK  ---SOME CHANGES HIGHLIGHTED

Well, the snow hype that I predicted over the course of the last couple months is coming to fruition. I hate to say I told you so, but here it comes. My earlier post stated a storm of 6 or more inches of snow for the end of the week into early next week. Well it is coming, right on cue. I want to remind my readers that this prediction was even before the models had shown the storm?  But how did I know- the ingredients to make the storm plus weather history played a key factor in my predictions.

Regardless, there is now an 80-90 percent chance of  how I feel this storm will play out based on current weather conditions:

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday in the LATE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT -  picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the roads by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay. This is called "Bombing Out"

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer it will fall like a rock--- snow will start falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals, the closer you get to Philly and the coast

3. The storm will finally be finished by Sunday evening but not after  between 10-14 inches of snow for us in the LV with more snow the closer you are to Philly. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 5 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds. The winds will gust over 35 mph at times making it seem like a blizzard

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined late Thursday afternoon or Friday morning into the late afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townhouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still two days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amount. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then.

I am calling in Eastern PA for the formation of a deformation band/inverted trough as the low pressure goes into a negative tilt which may enhance snowfall totals  and create the lollipops in heavier snow totals.  You may even see thundersnow.

Finally, do not drive anywhere Friday night into Sunday. Plows will only concentrate on RT 100 and the interstates and of course WAWA. They must keep them open and will be difficult with the winds and blowing snow. Plow trains will be a common scene on the news along with the drifting and big snowflakes which we have not seen in a long time. The snow ratios will be discussed in earnest and the closer to Philly and the coast, the bigger the snowflakes unless the aforementioned happens with the formation of the inverted trough/deformation band. Coastal beach erosion and flooding of course is a real big concern and will be one for the record books- rivaling Sandy's damage. Summer beach goers may have a tough summer this year on the Jersey shore with the sand gone in many locations and flooding of the houses.



Monday, January 18, 2016

HOPE YOU ARE READY TO SHOVEL?

Well, the snow hype that I predicted over the course of the last couple months is coming to fruition. I hate to say I told you so, but here it comes. My last post stated a storm of 6 or more inches of snow for the end of the week into early next week. Well it is coming, right on cue. I want to remind my readers that this prediction was even before the models had shown the storm?  But how did I know- the ingredients to make the storm plus weather history played a key factor in my predictions.

Regardless, there is a 60-70 percent chance of  how I feel this storm will play out based on current weather conditions:

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday morning into the afternoon- picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the road by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay.

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer--- snow will sart falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals

3. The storm will finally be finished by Saturday evening but not after  between 18-24 inches of snow for us in the LV with lollipops of three feet. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 10 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds.

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined Thursday afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townshouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still three days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amout. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then. If I wrong - lamb baste me for I would deserve it.  Good luck and will keep you apprised of future changes as the storm progresses


Saturday, January 16, 2016

OK, ITS TIME TO GET WINTER GOING

Even though winter has officially started in the Lehigh Valley, many are hard pressed to say it has really begun without accumulating snow on the ground. When a one inch snow steals the headlines in the Morning Call, we are  really desperate to call this a winter.

In many of my facebook posts the past few months, I have told readers that winter would not really start until the middle of January. It started this week with the brief but heavy snow squall that caused hundreds of accidents, left about an inch of snow on the ground and brought temperatures back to winter reality. Right on cue in my eyes. But happens next you ponder?  Explained below is what I have been saying since early December

The winter pattern must lock in. It is still trying to lock in this week and still has a little bit more to go. The southern jets stream which brings all of the storms into our area in an EL Nino year is settling in place while the northern jet stream is still in Canada. When the two merge in the next few weeks,    (called phasing) snow storms chances will become more abundant in the eastern US, especially for our area.  What are the keys to look for?  Low pressure systems forming along the edge of a stalled cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and Four Corner Low pressures forming in Arizona/ New Mexico/Colorado/Utah being injected into the mid -south area (Dallas to Nashville) to be carried into the mid-atlantic coast areas shortly after a arctic front passes us.

What can be expected?  More rumors of  blizzards. heavy snowfall events will become the headlines in social media as we go into February all the way to middle March. Will it get bitter cold? Yes but only for short durations which is typical  in an El Nino year as Pacific  storm systems that dominate our weather pattern. Expect snow on the ground for awhile through February into March. Plow drivers will finally see overtime going into February.  As the El Nino pattern finally disintegrates this spring, expect rounds of severe weather in the southern and middle US, including severe tornadoes and heavy rainfall for us in the northeast with cool and cloudy days  with chances of snow into early April.

The results of this wild weather pattern thus far?  Bulbs are already sprouting, buds forming on fruit trees and weeds making though the winter with the insects. Hopefully we get a good snow base in February to kill the stink bugs. Our poor ski resorts  will take a hit until we finally get a good snowstorm. But when will that be?

I  am calling for our first legitimate accumulating six inch or more snow storm between Jan 22- January 26. After that the pattern should be locked in to bring a parade of snow storm chances into our area and  I feel pretty confident this time. Mikey tries to be accurate