Tuesday, August 30, 2016

POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE AROUND LABOR DAY

Back on August 21, I forewarned all my weather friends in a facebook posting that a possible tropical storm/hurricane could hit our area around Labor Day. I still am forecasting this and the weather models are starting to depict this scenario today.  

This scenario is called a retrograde tropical low pressure system. Its very similar to what Hurricane Sandy did in 2011. A major high pressure system sets up to the northeast of our region and forces tropical storms to ride along the coast or retrograde back into the coast at a sharp angle. In this case a tropical storm that is forced underneath this high pressure system and has no other choice but to ride along the coast, dumping flooding rain and wind into our area along with severe beach erosion and high tides with flooding along the immediate coast and could move slow, increasing the amount of rainfall we experience.

Please watch the news over the next few days as the media hype will begin for the mid-atlantic region. Hopefully our area can get some heavy  rain. Our current dry soils can tolerate 2-4 inches of rain easily before river flooding becomes a concern. Lastly, I will start talking about long term winter forecasting after Labor Day unless we have back to back tropical storms, which has happened before in 1955 and is not out of the question given our current weather pattern of stingy northeast high pressure systems over our area that continually provided us with little chances of rain the past several months. Back to back tropical storms could obliterate this stubborn weather pattern and is very likely given the weather pattern we are currently in at this time. This could have a big effect on the upcoming winter as well.