Tuesday, October 4, 2016


All summer long I have been saying that in order to break our drought weather pattern, a tropical storm would have to hit us. We missed on the first storm this year in our region- we will not miss on this one though. My thoughts on how Hurricane Matthew will affect the Lehigh Valley.

1. The storm will ride along the entire east coast. Whether Hurricane Mathew where it comes on land is the only question. My best guess is somewhere between Myrtle Beach SC and Moorehead City NC.  Hurricane force winds will be present- Cat 3 is also my best guess but that may change based on the warmer sea temps just offshore. Cat 4 is not unreasonable at this time.

2. As the storm progresses along the coastline, it will weaken to Cat 2-3 all the way up to the Chesapeake Bay area. Yes, Delaware will be inundated with rain and wind with coastal beach erosion.

3. The tricky part of the storm is what happens as a MAJOR Cold front approaches Hurricane Matthew from the west as the same time it is riding along the coast. Stay tune for updates as this is still too early to predict the exact track for our area which will affect how much wind and rain we actually get.

4. There are two things that will definitely happen though regardless of the track of the hurricane for our area. We will get at least flooding rains- 2-4 inches of rain and secondly, it will get down right nippy after the storm leaves us.

5. The track of Hurricane Matthew is taking a track very similar to Hurricane Hazel which dumped flooding rains to our area in October 1954. These were record rain amounts along with record high winds for the Lehigh Valley. I do not see us getting so much of the winds as Hurricane Mathews is predicted to stay along the coastline unlike Hurricane Hazel which came inland and pummeled not only us but Canada. But you are hearing this first from me--- snow maybe more of a threat for the NE US and Canada than winds and rain as the cold air is pulled into the storm as it goes extratropical. This maybe a real big accumulation too- just have to see

6. When I stated a significant weather pattern change, I meant it. Lows will drop into the 30's with frost and freezes a possibility next week. Highs will be only in the 50's and maybe cooler. Stay tune