Wednesday, December 14, 2016

WINTER IS HERE AND YOU WILL KNOW IT TOMMORROW

As I stated in my last bog in November, you will get to know winter early this year. Starting tomorrow, it will be bitterly cold with biting winds and snow squalls about. We will be in the single digits t for lows tomorrow night.  Bu t that is not the half of it.

I expect a winter storm watch to be issued late tomorrow for heavy snow, sleet and especially for freezing rain. As many of you experienced a brief icing event on the trees this week already, this could be a dangerous icing event for the LV.  One-tenth to just over a quarter inch of freezing rain could be a real problem with power outages with heavy wet snow on the tree limbs. Just have to see how the models work out on this storm event. It will be real tough for the extreme cold air in place  to be scoured out by the third warm front event in a week.

Many are asking how much snow are we going to get?  My initial call is 5-8 inches of snow but in a warm front situation, precipitation transition times are difficult to time and make all the difference in accumulation amounts. I would cautiously say at this time it will be a plowable event with a heavy crust of ice. Then rain on top making this event a slopfest for everyone to walk and drive in.

This is my opinion only but if Mt Holly NOAA issues anything less than a winter storm watch, they are going to be in trouble. This is not because of  the storm event initially not meeting the heavy snow criteria but  the types of precip that can occur with this particular type of  storm event. We could have only four inches of snow, one inch of sleet and one tenth of an inch of ice on tree limbs and they will come down just as bad as a  a 12 inch snow event. The LV is prone to such events

I caution the municipalities to watch this event carefully unfold, The heavy wet snow near the transition times for the precipitation will be accumulating quickly with the flakes becoming bigger and bigger until it changes to sleet or freezing rain. This event would be a good event to brine the roads ahead and you will see this on Friday.