Wednesday, December 14, 2016

WINTER IS HERE AND YOU WILL KNOW IT TOMMORROW

As I stated in my last bog in November, you will get to know winter early this year. Starting tomorrow, it will be bitterly cold with biting winds and snow squalls about. We will be in the single digits t for lows tomorrow night.  Bu t that is not the half of it.

I expect a winter storm watch to be issued late tomorrow for heavy snow, sleet and especially for freezing rain. As many of you experienced a brief icing event on the trees this week already, this could be a dangerous icing event for the LV.  One-tenth to just over a quarter inch of freezing rain could be a real problem with power outages with heavy wet snow on the tree limbs. Just have to see how the models work out on this storm event. It will be real tough for the extreme cold air in place  to be scoured out by the third warm front event in a week.

Many are asking how much snow are we going to get?  My initial call is 5-8 inches of snow but in a warm front situation, precipitation transition times are difficult to time and make all the difference in accumulation amounts. I would cautiously say at this time it will be a plowable event with a heavy crust of ice. Then rain on top making this event a slopfest for everyone to walk and drive in.

This is my opinion only but if Mt Holly NOAA issues anything less than a winter storm watch, they are going to be in trouble. This is not because of  the storm event initially not meeting the heavy snow criteria but  the types of precip that can occur with this particular type of  storm event. We could have only four inches of snow, one inch of sleet and one tenth of an inch of ice on tree limbs and they will come down just as bad as a  a 12 inch snow event. The LV is prone to such events

I caution the municipalities to watch this event carefully unfold, The heavy wet snow near the transition times for the precipitation will be accumulating quickly with the flakes becoming bigger and bigger until it changes to sleet or freezing rain. This event would be a good event to brine the roads ahead and you will see this on Friday. 

Monday, November 14, 2016

SO YOU THINK WINTER WILL NEVER COME?

I said in my last blog about the chance of a November snow and getting cold. Sunday night may be the first of many cold spells coming up with a chance of the white stuff mixing with rain in the Lehigh Valley and accumulating snow in the Poconos. What is my winter outlook?

Snows will be abundant with the ground being white most of the winter. Above average snowfall is expected. The first accumulating snow will happen before  Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7) in this weak La Nina year.  We will see many cloudy days with one rain/snow storm after another. Many of the snow cutoff lines will run through Montgomery County  or what I call the Fall line (South Mountains) this winter. I do see a significant amount of ice storms this year as warm fronts will be blazing through our area. It will be cold- below normal starting in early December. This will be the talk of the town.

What I do hope to see is significant rains followed by heavy snows, otherwise we are in deep do do and will be in a Drought emergency by Christmas. Lets hope for a big Christmas snow this year- we are way overdue for one.

I will keep you on top of the winter storms as much as possible but lets be realistic this year. Many of the storms in a LaNina year are hard to predict snow vs rain as the cutoff line is very close to the Lehigh Valley. Hopefully we will get the cold to go along with the precip this year. 





Thursday, November 3, 2016

PADEP FINALLY ISSUES DROUGHT WARNING

What I have been saying since April has finally been issued today. We are officially under a drought warning and IMHO in a Drought emergency. The Little Lehigh Creek base elevation only has to drop one more foot and the stream will be dry from Willow RD to Rt 100. That has not happened since 1966. The groundwater table is  already in drought emergency status. This is a serious drought as even demonstrated by the 50 acre corn fire last week. LCA should be cutting off withdrawals to the wells next to the Little Lehigh Creek stream as this drought is becoming a watershed issue and just no ta stream base flow issue.

Many people have been asking me about this winter. Cold will be the dominate feature this winter with well below temps for late December into January. Normal snowfall events are expected with the first accumulating snowfall between Thanksgiving and December 7. There will be a real good chance of some 8+ snowstorms this winter unlike the 30" and done storm like last year. Expect  a serious ice storm this year with the colder temps.


Friday, October 7, 2016

THE DROUGHT CONTINUES

Well as the cold front shunts Hurricane Matthew out to sea for a loop de loop pattern, we in the LV get jack crap for rainfall. I really thought this storm would be a pattern changers- wrong. Needless to say we need the rain and we will get nada -- less than .45 inch and that is even on the high side. The only thing I did say right is the possible landfall spot for Hurricane Matthew- still going for SC border area with NC

I was alo wrong on the drought warning being issues by PADEP.  PADEP drought task force  thought Hurricane Matthew was going to give us relief and thus failed to issue the warning this past Tuesday. I expect them now to issue one after their  next meeting in two weeks or possibly even sooner. The groundwater tables have already met for drought warning status and the two inch rain we had at the beginning of the month did little to replenish the aquifer ore even the stream flow for our area.

It will get cooler however with the passing cold front on Saturday-- lows in the upper 30's and highs in the upper 50's - lower 60's.  Fall is here- just wish the rain was as too.




Tuesday, October 4, 2016

THE DROUGHT BUSTER- HURRICANE MATTHEW - IS ABOUT TO CHANGE OUR WEATHER PATTERN

All summer long I have been saying that in order to break our drought weather pattern, a tropical storm would have to hit us. We missed on the first storm this year in our region- we will not miss on this one though. My thoughts on how Hurricane Matthew will affect the Lehigh Valley.

1. The storm will ride along the entire east coast. Whether Hurricane Mathew where it comes on land is the only question. My best guess is somewhere between Myrtle Beach SC and Moorehead City NC.  Hurricane force winds will be present- Cat 3 is also my best guess but that may change based on the warmer sea temps just offshore. Cat 4 is not unreasonable at this time.

2. As the storm progresses along the coastline, it will weaken to Cat 2-3 all the way up to the Chesapeake Bay area. Yes, Delaware will be inundated with rain and wind with coastal beach erosion.

3. The tricky part of the storm is what happens as a MAJOR Cold front approaches Hurricane Matthew from the west as the same time it is riding along the coast. Stay tune for updates as this is still too early to predict the exact track for our area which will affect how much wind and rain we actually get.

4. There are two things that will definitely happen though regardless of the track of the hurricane for our area. We will get at least flooding rains- 2-4 inches of rain and secondly, it will get down right nippy after the storm leaves us.

5. The track of Hurricane Matthew is taking a track very similar to Hurricane Hazel which dumped flooding rains to our area in October 1954. These were record rain amounts along with record high winds for the Lehigh Valley. I do not see us getting so much of the winds as Hurricane Mathews is predicted to stay along the coastline unlike Hurricane Hazel which came inland and pummeled not only us but Canada. But you are hearing this first from me--- snow maybe more of a threat for the NE US and Canada than winds and rain as the cold air is pulled into the storm as it goes extratropical. This maybe a real big accumulation too- just have to see

6. When I stated a significant weather pattern change, I meant it. Lows will drop into the 30's with frost and freezes a possibility next week. Highs will be only in the 50's and maybe cooler. Stay tune

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE AROUND LABOR DAY

Back on August 21, I forewarned all my weather friends in a facebook posting that a possible tropical storm/hurricane could hit our area around Labor Day. I still am forecasting this and the weather models are starting to depict this scenario today.  

This scenario is called a retrograde tropical low pressure system. Its very similar to what Hurricane Sandy did in 2011. A major high pressure system sets up to the northeast of our region and forces tropical storms to ride along the coast or retrograde back into the coast at a sharp angle. In this case a tropical storm that is forced underneath this high pressure system and has no other choice but to ride along the coast, dumping flooding rain and wind into our area along with severe beach erosion and high tides with flooding along the immediate coast and could move slow, increasing the amount of rainfall we experience.

Please watch the news over the next few days as the media hype will begin for the mid-atlantic region. Hopefully our area can get some heavy  rain. Our current dry soils can tolerate 2-4 inches of rain easily before river flooding becomes a concern. Lastly, I will start talking about long term winter forecasting after Labor Day unless we have back to back tropical storms, which has happened before in 1955 and is not out of the question given our current weather pattern of stingy northeast high pressure systems over our area that continually provided us with little chances of rain the past several months. Back to back tropical storms could obliterate this stubborn weather pattern and is very likely given the weather pattern we are currently in at this time. This could have a big effect on the upcoming winter as well.

Friday, July 29, 2016

THE LOWE'S SHOPPING CENTER - AN ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN

Lower Macungie Township is faced with a real dilema now. The proposed Lowe's shopping center could create an environmental disaster for our region and the residents have no inkling of why this could happen. The word needs to be spread now not only for for the residents of Lower Macungie but to all of those who rely on drinking water from Schantz Spring, including Allentown, Upper Macungie(UMT), Lehigh County Authority(LCA), and the regions bottling and manufacturing industrial sites

In the map seen below, I highlighted Schantz Spring Reservoir and various approximate locations of proposed new development. Why am I concerned? I will list the following reasons why we should all be concerned:

1. The proposed new service road will bring unwarranted truck traffic onto a road system that is not designed and protected from accidental spills.  The current road system on RT 78 was designed to prevent accidental spills from contaminating the Schantz Spring Reservoir area and Cedar Creek. Schantz Rd is currently not protected or designed from such a spill event.

2. Should a spill occur at the 90 degree bend in the road on Schantz Rd., the city of Allentown as well as all LMT and UMT will lose its main source of  drinking water, By losing this main source, more well pumping along the Little Lehigh will occur which will lead to the Little Lehigh Creek becoming a dry creek bed throughout Lower Macungie Township.

3. The one lane bridge on Schantz Rd is currently another accidental spill waiting to happen. The road is simply not designed to handle all of the traffic and especially truck traffic expected to circumnavigate RT 78 and RT 309 to get to the Tilghman St entrance turnpike entrance.

4. Lastly, more accidents will occur with the limited site distance with the current businesses on the road and the fact that Ciocca will be using this road to test drive vehicles.

South Whitehall Water Authority learned the hard way several years ago when a fuel tanker spilled on the on ramp to the Lehigh Valley toll booth station and contaminated several wells in their system. Needless to say, a spill over Schantz Spring Reservoir will ruin our economy and drinking water supply for almost 200,000 residents. This is an issue the entire Lehigh Valley should be against until the developers and PennDOT can safely design a road system that will prevent accidental chemical and fuel spills into the Schantz Spring Reservoir area.

Possible solutions to this predicament are

1. Permanently close off Schantz Rd  by constructing a cul-de-sac on both sides before the one lane bridge and marking the road "No Outlet" so Ciocca can still test drive his vehicles and local businesses can still be access along the Lower Macungie side of  Schantz Rd.

2. Making the developer place in a new four lane bridge and updating the stormwater system  along Schantz rd by placing a closed valve system to prevent fuel spill contamination from reaching the surface of the ground.

3. Widing and moving Schantz Rd with a bridge support system to avoid the 90 degree bend in Schantz Rd.

4. Simply doing away with the Lowe's Service Rd.


I also am bringing to the attention of my readers that there is no topsoil on the proposed land development site. Hundreds if not thousands of truck loads of topsoil will have to be brought to the site, increasing the chances of a spill or accident not to mention the traffic nightmares. The road infrastructure for spill prevention must be improved before the shopping center is built- no if ands or buts.  PLEASE SPREAD THE WORD ASAP.







Monday, July 18, 2016

THE HEAT IS COMING - DO NOT BE FOOLED

Today was the first day in over two months that we had an inch of rain in one single storm event. The Little Lehigh Creek was extremely brown because the rainfall was so intense and washed off the topsoil in the upper reaches of the the stream. The creek also received the "first flush" which means all the non-point source pollutants that have been in the pipes and on the streets were flushed into the Little Lehigh Creek. Not a very good day for the stream. But considering all the rain, the stream only got to bankfull and now is falling quickly again. The stream base flow needs to be monitored over the course of the next few weeks.

The heat is returning after Thursday. We will get a few days with the windows open so take advantage of it. Today it reached 98 degrees at my house before the rains came. Saturday and Sunday it will be over 100. I doubt we will see any precip this weekend- so be aware and stay cool. This heat wave will last into next week with no tropical storms in the near future as last nights possibility has dwindled.

Friday, June 24, 2016

WE ARE IN A MODERATE DROUGHT- NO RELIEF IN SITE

As I have been stating in my posts since April 26, 2016, we are in a drought. The Morning Call finally recognized the seriousness of  this situation in todays paper. Everything  I have said has to fruition. Please request LCA to start cutting back on well withdrawals along the Little Lehigh Creek. Here is an email that I sent to DRBC expressing my concerns.

As a hydrologist myself, I am seriously concerned with the drought conditions we are experiencing in the Little Lehigh Creek Watershed.  As you are probably aware, the Little Lehigh Creek is fed by multiple springs in a karst topography. We are the home of many water bottling companies which produce water for the entire country. The withdrawal of millions of gallons of water in our watershed is an attestment to this fact.

The current base flow in the Little Lehigh Creek is far below normal at this time. I want to bring to your attention some facts which lead me to express that the DRBC in conjunction with PADEP should issue a drought warning at this time for our area and work in conjunction with the Lehigh County Water Authority(LCA) to start curtailing water withdrawals from their wells.

1. The Little Lehigh Creek Watershed has experienced little or no ground water recharge since January. After the record 32 inch snowfall, there has been little snow or rain to recharge our groundwater supply with much below precipitation in the last several months in the watershed. Most of the precipitation recorded at the Lehigh Valley International Airport has been spotty- hit and miss precipitation which in many cases as missed the Little Lehigh Creek watershed and is also not an accurate depiction of the actual rainfall in the watershed.

2. The Palmer Index indicates we are in a moderate drought with deficits in precipitation running close to 6-9 inches. This is critical concern because this is a reliable measurement of a true drought and its conditions.

3. The residents are now experiencing brown lawns and wilted gardens. Lawn watering is becoming a daily occurrence, further reducing the groundwater levels and baseflow in the Little Lehigh Creek.

4.  Should the base flow go underground, the upper reaches of the Little Lehigh Creek environment will be destroyed and it will be years before this HQ stream will be returned to normal.

5. The USGS  flood gauge  for the Little Lehigh Creek at 10th street in Allentown has been off-line for almost two years because of the removal of the Robin Hood low flow dam. This dam removal has subjected the creek to poor hydrological flow data to actually depict base flow conditions, especially for the upper reaches of the stream and for Mt. Holly to issue flood warnings if needed on the Little Lehigh Creek.

6. Lastly LCA has not recognized the seriousness of this drought and needs to awoken before the stream goes dry, especially in the Lower Macungie Township area. I base this lack of concern on the fact that they have now are utilizing Schantz Spring as an additional  water resource since the merger with the city of Allentown Water and Wastewater System in 2013. Somebody needs to be concerned about the surface water resources and not just the groundwater resources. I believe this is the the role of the DRBC.

I believe I have given you plenty of factual information why the DRBC should be involved at this time and should inform LCA to invoke any drought plan they have on the books. I would also encourage a drought warning to be issued for our area at your next meeting with PADEP.   I also have an extensive meteorology background as well and  I assure that the forecast for heavy rains to alleviate this drought are not coming anytime soon unless we a have a tropical storm system strike our region. I welcome you to review my weather blog for your perusal as well as my linkedin page for my credentials. I have been calling this drought since April. Thank you and I await your reply.

Friday, June 10, 2016

I AM DEAD SERIOUS ON WHY WE SHOULD BE IN A DROUGHT WATCH ISSUED BY DEP

 I just looked at the recent forecast models. Its deplorable.  I see no significant rainfall for the next week. Sure we will have a chance of thunderstorm on Saturday but one fast moving cold front squall line is not going to break the drought we are presently in. If we are real lucky and I mean real lucky, we could see an inch of rain but that is it. So why am I concerned?

The Palmer Index in which most agriculturists and hydrologists rely on for soil moisture content and current drought conditions this week has listed our are as needing almost six inches of rain to break the drought conditions. That is a reduction of over 40% -50%  of the rain we usually see for this time of the year. In reality though, the conditions are far worse. With the lack of a good groundwater recharge this spring, the Little Lehigh Creek is approaching extremely low baseline flows for this time of the year. Whats unusual about the these conditions is that the drought is not self evident other than the low flows in our are rivers and creeks. Here is what you see:

a. The grass and weeds are growing at a fantastic rate becaus ethere has been enough just enough rain to keep the the first few inches of topsoil moist enough to allow these grasses to grow.

b. The tree leafed out late as a result of the below normal cooler temperatures. This extended leaf out conditions from the lack of rain this spring took away in remaining mositure in the soil below the first few inches.

c.  The cooler than usual weather conditions and the unusual extremely windy western winds have managed to act as a Santa Ana wind conditions in the Lehigh Valley the past week and has successfully evaporated any moisture left in the ground after this weeks hit and miss rainfall  event.

d. Lastly, the only saving grace has been the cooler temps have not kept the the immediate surface of the soil profile from being completely dry. This will change once the temps have reached back in the upper 80's in another week. It will appear the lawns will turn yellow and brown overnight and of course people will start watering their lawns and gardens more often.

I see no relief to this weather pattern as the very windy Canadian High pressure systems dominate our weather pattern. You will see very windy and drying conditions on Sunday again after Saturdays brief rainfall event. When the Bermuda  Highs finally starts taking over, then we will get more rainfall.  In simplistic terms, the Gulf of Mexico humidity has been shutoff for our area by these strong Canadian Highs pushing the cold fronts further south than usual this time for this time of the year. It will take a tropical storm or hurricane to break this pattern as I have seen in this scenario before from going to a stong El Nino weather pattern to a La Nina weather pattern. We are caught in the middle and literally hung out to dry.

With the cold fronts hanging up in the Gulf of Mexico and dying out, chances are actually increasing for tropical storm/hurricane development. Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will be blasted with flooding rains if this weather pattern continues. Hopefully one of these storms can reach us as it rides along the coast otherwise  I see drought warnings before the end of July for our area and water restrictions in place by LCA.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING IN A BIG WAY

Since we had basically one big hurrah for a snow fall back in January, the ground is pretty parched from the lack of an adequate recharge in the past few weeks with thee little rain that we received as evident by the huge wildfires in the Poconos, red flag warnings issued here in the Lehigh Valley and the lack of a complete  leaf out in many tree species that usually happens this time of the year. Drought stress is really rearing its ugly head.

I am really concerned about the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. The Little Lehigh Creek is showing signs of stress by  the trout leaving the upper reaches of the stream. It is very noticeable in my backyard. The stream is below its base line flow, which is usually exhibited in late October. If we do not get substantial rainfall in the next few weeks, which is very doubtful in IMHO, we are in big trouble going into summer.

What should we all do? I know its hard but but we need to curtail our outdoor water usage now and began a self-rationing system of using water all together. I expect a drought watch to be issued by PADEP in the next few weeks is how serious I see this situation and a warning issued by the end of May.

All of the rain is being dumped out in the western part of the state and by the time it crosses the Appalachians, it is gone by the time it reaches the Lehigh Valley. We literally have received dribbles here- just enough to keep the grass green and the flowers blooming- a misnomer indeed. The lows form south us on a stalled front  and the cold fronts with all the precipitation go into NY- leaving us in the middle with no significant rain.  Its really frustrating to see this repeatedly  happening over the last month with no relief in site.

What can we do now? The first thing I would do is call on the Lehigh County Authority and ask them to brush off their drought plan. The I would ask them to consider to shutting off their municipal wells along the Little Lehigh Creek until we have significant rains so the creek does not dry up and ruin the beautiful ecosystem we have in place. Lastly, I would call or email on the Delaware River Basin Commission and express your concerns on this serious situation- for they are the eyes and ears for keeping water flowing in our local streams. Thanks guys


Friday, April 8, 2016

GROUNDHOG APPEALS DECISION BUT MIKEY SAYS COURT WILL DENY THE APPEAL BASED ON THE NOON WEATHER MODELS

As the groundhog tries to appeal Judge Spring's decision, Mikey says get the salters ready and maybe the plows. The noon models came in with 6+ inches for the Lehigh Valley area. With much of the snow predicted to melt on the asphalt if salt treated, the ground and roads will become white quickly if starts snowing before sunrise, With the  higher sun angle during the day, the snow will have a difficult time accumulating on the roads but it is not impossible if the snow comes down hard enough at sunrise especially at 1-3 inch an hour rates and dollar size flakes. This is a wait and see storm event.

This is also an elevation type of snow event with the higher snow amounts on the ridges, hills and in the shady areas of the valley.   My biggest concern is that trees will be snow loaded and breaking of limbs and even power lines can be a problem. I expect if the snow is coming down hard enough in banding that sets up over the Lehigh Valley, a winter storm warning may be issued at the last second. Just be prepared.


Thursday, April 7, 2016

GROUNDHOG VIOLATES PROBATION- JUDGE SENTENCES HIM TO 60 DAYS IN JAIL

The Spring County judge has sentenced the groundhog to 60 days in jail after the judge learned that it will snow this weekend-  tulip snow is what the judge is calling it. The judge says the groundhog deserved the sentence for delaying spring as much as three weeks and for damaging or even killing the peach crop with the recent freeze last two nights night. The forecast of snow this weekend just added misery to the month of April. The judge accepted the blogging evidence from Michael Siegel that he warned the community of a nasty April would be back last December. Michael stated that the potential of snowfall this weekend of a couple of inches could be the icing on the cake for the groundhog. Rumor has it the groundhog is on a suicide watch while being incarcerated at the Spring County prison at this time.

 Michael stated the weather could break from this nasty cold spell sometime around April 20th for good.






Tuesday, April 5, 2016

NOAA AND TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS NEED TO WORK TOGETHER FOR WARNING MOTORISTS

After reading the recent  PA Turnpike Commission (PTC) report with link below on the 2016 Blizzard and the stranding of motoristrists in Somerset County there was a complete failure with Accuweather. What stands out in the report was the fact that Accuweather did not update adequately enough for the PTC to react to the changing weather and driving conditions.

What boggles my mind is why the PTC relies on Accuweather in the first place when NOAA issues the storm warnings and advisories for the public.The two weather agencies do not mesh. NOAA has a credible warning system that the motorists and truck drivers rely on for adequate driving conditions. Accuweather does not. Accuweather simply emails or faxes over their forecasts and PTC relies on them.

NOAA and the PTC and PADOT need to sit down and work out a warning system that both public and each agency can feel comfortable working with to prevent motorists from being stranded. Motorists have grown accustomed to travel in snowy conditions with their all wheel terrain vehicles and the NOAA warning system has not yet adapted to this new situation.

I like the PTC warning system as mentioned in the report but the weather officials need to relay this same information to the motorists. I urge you to read the report-- it will wake you up and I welcome your comments


http://www.wfmz.com/news/Pennsylvania-Turnpike-plans-changes-after-January-storm-stranded-hundreds/38878524

Saturday, April 2, 2016

WINDY AND MORE WINDY- PLEASE READ

The past few weeks have been pretty windy around here. The next two days will be no exception. Tropical force winds will be seen. I am hoping everyone can cover the recycling bins, the garbage cans and loose lawn furniture-- they will be blowing around. I pray that the fishermen are not out fishing Sunday morning- tree breaking branches is a good bet along the streams.

Those who listen to me have no worries if they did not plant tender veggies or flowers in the ground, those who did-- say goodbye to those plantings in the next few days. with the freezing temps.  Finally watch for the snow flakes- fluffy and big at times. I said April was going to be miserable and I meant it. Cold, dreary at times for the next few weeks.  Then Spring finally stays for good.

I hope we can get some decent rains in the next few weeks. We are way below average in rainfall bigtime. Lastly, enjoy the snow that we get. It may accumulate  enough to whiten things nicely for picture taking but will be gone by mid-morning.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

GROUNDHOG ON PROBATION FOR 20 DAYS AND URGES RESIDENTS NOT TO PLANT ANY FLOWERS OR TENDER PLANTS UNTIL APRIL 15

Judge Spring gave the groundhog a 20 day probation period starting last Tuesday . Judge Spring stated  that by  April 4 there was a chance of extremely below normal weather which would be indicative of winter not being over as demonstrated by the groundhog's actions in February. There is a chance of snow during this 20 day period with overnight lows dipping back into the teens and highs in the upper 20's to low 30's. Judge Spring says cover your plants and watch for extreme freezing weather after April 2.

Monday, March 21, 2016

GROUNDHOG ACQUITTED: JUDGE SPRING SAYS EURO MODELS ARE NOW UNRELIABLE

Well, the title says it all. The storm passed with light flurries and graupel- that's it. The judge says spring has finally arrived but he did state that he was really concerned about the testimony brought forth by Michael Siegel indicating that after April Fools day, the weather was going to be extremely cool, dreary and rainy with a couple of chances of a light snow event with frosts and freeze potentials.

Interviewing the groundhog after the trial, the groundhog reiterates that he is not responsible after the six week forecast period is concluded.We will see.  The groundhog went back into his lair to hopefully get a good rest for next winters prediction. During the interview with the groundhog,  a few disappointed snow weenies were seen trying to gas the groundhogs lair only to escape later. A note was left over the his lair entrance stating, "Wait until we see you on the road" The groundhog had no comments about the situation and appeared to shrug it off as a prank.

Friday, March 18, 2016

GROUNDHOG TRIAL CONTINUES: PICTURE OF GROUNDHOG MUGSHOTS ARE FINALLY RELEASED

The groundhog trial recessed this afternoon to be continued to Monday morning. His mugshots were finally released today as seen below. Atty Noaa stated that the current US modeling evidence only shows a nuisance type snow event of 3-5 inches. Atty Noaa says the Euro model was recently revamped a few weeks ago and has severely presented a wrongful and unfair picture of his clients prediction made back on Feb 2 of 2016. Atty Noaa has requested a summary judgement for his client to be released based on the most recent GFS model runs submitted as evidence.  Judge Spring said he will make his final ruling on Monday morning


TRIAL UPDATE: THE GROUNDHOG'S ATTORNEY SAYING THE EURO EVIDENCE NEEDS TO BE THROWN OUT THIS MORNING

Yes siree, the euro evidence appears to be skewed this morning and snow totals will be going down. The 12+ inches looks more like 3-6 inches or even less this morning. As I said this in my earlier posts-this time of the year it is all about potential. In another 24-36 hours any model evidence to be presented against the groundhog will be useless and the case will have to be ride on its dopplar radar merits and the water vapor imagery. A winter weather advisory still looks good at this time so the groundhog may just get off with a slap on the wrist and probation if this trend continues.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

THE GROUNDHOG HAS NOW BEEN OFFICIALLY CHARGED WITH HOLDING TOP SECRET E-MAILS ON HIS SERVER

Yep, criminal charges were brought forth this morning against the groundhog. After waiving his rights at the preliminary hearing earlier this morning, he posted bail of one million dollars and now is located at his underground lair awaiting trial. He is currently on a suicide watch as well as he maybe buried within his underground lair for a few days. We continue to watch for future changes.


The models are indicating my worst fears, a significant snow event is unfolding as I explained in my blog on Monday and for Rick-- a plowable event. Still to early to call exact snow  amounts but my first initial call of  12+ inches maybe close if the models come to agreement by Friday evening. The potential for a winter storm watch or  advisory(if the amounts are less)to be issued Saturday morning exists at this time.

The media is already playing into the hype and so are some of the weather outlets. I rather wait for additional model runs to confirm my approximate snow accumulation at this time. To suffice to say that brining of the roads will take place Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning as salt will work well initially to keep the snow off the pavement. My biggest concerns is that blooming bulbs will be hurt or destroyed with the snow accumulation if the snow  is greater than 8+ inches. The snow will be good for the grass as everything will green after it starts melting with the high nitrogen levels in the snow pack. Snows greater than 12+ inches will cause power outages in rural areas from tree branches breaking from the weight of the heavy snow and budding trees maybe damaged as well. Poconos could be hit real hard with this storm event.

This event will be a picturesque winter scene event with the dollar size snowflakes sticking to all of the vegetation. Have your cameras ready. Lastly, I will keep you updated as the predicted snow amounts will fluctuate as the storm gets stronger. Expect some wind as well. The real kicker will be the snow will be real wet, so take it easy shoveling and admiring  the big snow flakes as they fall.


Monday, March 14, 2016

OK, THE RUMOR MILL HAS OFFICIALLY STARTED-THE GROUNDHOG MAY HAVE LIED AND DELETED TOP SECRET E-MAILS ON HIS SERVER

Yes, I mentioned in several facebook postings a couple of days ago about the POTENTIAL  for a winter storm on the first day of Spring. The models are starting to agree on a some type of winter storm but in my professional opinion it is still a long shot. But if the storm does come together with all of the right ingredients and timed to start snowing right at sunset into the night, it can be a whopper of a storm with 12+ inches of very wet heavy snow with local power outages. Its still way to early to call exact amounts but this may end up being more of an elevation snow where the ridge tops along South Mountain, Blue Mountain and the Poconos receive the heavier accumulating snow and the valleys get snow melting on the ground as soon as it hits and only sticks to the grass.- Sorry plow guys.  But we will see and I will keep you up to date on any changes. I just would not put away the snow blowers or shovels just yet.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

MAYBE A PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT FRIDAY?

The snow weenie in me is jumping up and down but I have learned over the month of February not get my hopes up too high. It will start snowing Thursday night into Friday. How much you say? My best guess at this point is 2-4 inches- staying on the low side this time of 3 inches. But there are some variables that quickly make this a 6+ snow event if they all come together just right.

First, it is snowing at night. Given the sun angle having an effect on snowfall during the day in March, the snow if falling heavily can start accumulating on the roads and parking lots since it is starting at night. Once the ground is cold and untreated, the snow can pile up in a hurry. This would be a good time where brining of the roads should be done and you should see this tomorrow afternoon throughout your travels in the LV.

Secondly, the storm is a clipper type of storm which redevelops off the east coast. Depending on the exact track, we can get only 2" or more than 6" of snow. This will not happen until the last minute, so it is difficult for me to say with confidence at this time the exact amount.

Lastly, the speed of the storm and as it redevelops along the coast is a major concern. Any slower and the snow amounts can jump significantly in a hurry. This is one of those type of storms that can surprise everyone when the wake up in Friday morning. As the storm develops, it could be actually be snowing harder during the Friday morning than many forecasters have anticipated. There will be no sleet or ice in this storm event.

Be prepared for winter weather advisories to be issued tomorrow but if the models change at the last minute (especially the NAM model), these advisories could be changed to winter storm watch or warnings. Just be on guard. Fridays morning commute could be tricky if the roads are not treated as I stated earlier.

There is another snow chance Saturday into Sunday but that is clearly dependent on what this snow event does.

For you Spring Lovers- get out your shorts again. By this time next week we will be approaching 70 degrees if not warmer.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

HAVE WE HAD ENOUGH RAIN YET? WINTER IS NOT OVER AND THE GROUNDHOG DROWNED THIS MORNING

yep, the groundhog drowned last night. I first was hoping he was going to be buried alive but nope- his hole was filled with water and he drowned. This had been a godawful last 2.5 weeks for us in the LV. The 34" snowpack is gone after a two consecutive 2-3 inch rainfall events and 60 degree weather together with a wintry mix. We are officially out a drought and spring flowers should bloom with adequate moisture around. But I am afraid this may not be the case this year.

The early March weather patterns on the models are indicating several more chances of a winter storm event, especially late in the first week in March right into the second week. If that should happen, many flowers may not bloom on time this year with a delay in tree budding. El Nino years are also known for nasty late March- April time frames for long duration rain events but more notably for cloudy skies and cool weather.

The weather we had last night was a doozy. The flooding rains were the predominant feature but what was even more unusual was the spike in the temperature in such a quick time. When you have such conditions, tornadoes and severe weather is a given. I have gone through these type of  quick temperature changes before and every time severe weather is involved. To have this in February is a once in a lifetime experience for most of us in the Lehigh Valley. I would expect this in May and June not in winter. Spring Creek Rd will be closed for today because of the flooding and perhaps all day tomorrow and into Friday. Lets see how fast the waters recede.

You may see snow this evening like I called for earlier. Do not be surprised as this is common after a strong system like we just had. Accumulation will only be on the grass this afternoon through the evening but it may stick on the road later tonight if falls heavy and quick




Monday, February 22, 2016

MORE WINTRY CRAP ON THE WAY

Remember back in my December post when I said most of the storms will ride the Appalachian Mts this winter. Well, it sure has been doing this in the past three weeks and this storm is no exception. Expect 1-3 inches of snow starting in the morning with sleet and rain mixed in tomorrow changing to heavy rain again by the evening with small stream flooding and road ponding. No plows needed as it will all melt and the roads are too warm.

March appears to be coming in cold and clammy. I am expecting at least one more storm event of 6+ inches of snow. Beware of 1958 another El Nino year where we had a big blizzard of 20+ inches of snow in March. It could happen again and the current weather pattern is promoting another big snow event in first two weeks of March.  We will see.


Tuesday, February 16, 2016

UH OH- MORE MODEL AGREEMENT- THE GROUNDHOG WILL BE BURIED ALIVE?

By the 29th of February, 2016, a leap year---snow weenies maybe leaping for joy again. The models are in agreement around this time frame of February 24-29 for a major storm event. Way too early to call snow amounts but this could possibly be another major plowable event. Just when the snow piles were disappearing in the parking lots, there could more to replace them. 12+ inches is not out of the question at this time but lets keep an eye on this situation. When three major weather models agree to shout- then it is time to bring the shovels out. Remember my statement.

Here is one of the models prediction- 12+ inches ---we will see. 



Monday, February 15, 2016

UPDATE TIME FOR PRESIDENTS DAY STORM

Everything is on cue. Mt Holly has gone over to a freezing rain advisory in the past hour. The snow has mixed with freezing rain the past hour with occasional sleet. The snow looks to be done for the front end of the storm two to four inches looks pretty common- little lower than I called for but whats an inch or two.

I am really concerned that Mt Holly should have issues an ice storm warning for the LV. I do not see the cold air  being scoured out in our area by almost sunrise. Well we will see how close I am to sunrise prediction for changeover to flooding rains.

The snow chances after the rains have dwindled. But stay dry anyway. I see flooding on our local roads and along the Little Lehigh and Swabia Creeks big time by Tuesday afternoon. Watch your basements

Sunday, February 14, 2016

COLD AIR DAMMING- WHAT IS IT AND HOW DOES AFFECT MONDAYS FORECAST?

Cold air damming (CAD)  is a weather phenomena  that often occurs on the east side of the Appalachian Mountain chain. When a CAD establishes itself in these areas, a weather forecaster can be faced with quite a challenge, one that can wreak havoc on forecasting high temperatures and precipitation types.    

A CAD occurs when a low-level cold air mass is topographically trapped on the east side of a mountain range. An area of high pressure at the surface will be positioned to the north of the region and the clockwise flow around the high means the low-level winds coming into the region will have an easterly cold component. These easterly winds will push up against the east side of the mountain range. Air moving up the mountain range ends up cooling even more and allowing the cold air to build up on the eastern slopes. This causes a "damming effect".  As the winds eventually switch to a more southerly direction as the low pressure or storm approaches us, the cold air is eventually scoured out of the eastern valleys  such as the Lehigh Valley. The problem is that the Lehigh Valley holds so much cold air in place, it is difficult to forecast when the warm air will eventually push out or erode the cold air trapped in the valley. This results in prolong periods of freezing rain or sleet in the Lehigh Valley where closer to Philadelphia or even in the Poconos sometimes it will be simply raining. This is purely A GEOGRAPHICAL  ISSUE which is one reason why I tried to convince NOAA to keep its weather office at the Allentown Airport. An example of this is seen below in the image for the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia which is similar to our topography.

A CAD will form over us Tuesday morning. We should receive 3-6 inches of snow before the CAD sets up. The snow will start off light and fluffy and will be accumulating on the roads since it was so cold the last few days. Salt will not work initially. Be prepared to actually drive on snow covered roads Monday evening on the way home from work. Expect accidents and delays on your way home from work. Drivers have not been used to this timing and road conditions of snow falling. Lucky its a holiday for many.

The amount of freezing rain will be very dependent on fast the winds change direction for this storm event. I expect at least a quarter of inch of ice to form on the trees and power lines, maybe even more. The big issue is when does the snow change over to sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday morning then finally to rain. In this type of event, its been my experience the changeover occurs sometime between 10 am and 2:00 pm.  4:00 am and 10 am.  Lets see how close I am. 

Please do spend a lot of time shoveling snow because it will be very wet and heavy on Tuesday morning as the changeover occurs. You will not be used to this type of snow shoveling. What usually happens is that the snow flakes will become half dollar size before changing to sleet going back and forth for a period of time and then to just freezing rain and plain rain. How long the snow says as half dollar size will determine the final accumulation of snow before it all melts away. 

I am forecasting up to 1 to 1.5 inches of rain after the snow, so it will be an all out crapfest of trying to walk around on Tuesday with slush everywhere. Wear your boots if going outside- you will be glad you did. Flooding on roadways will be a good bet so I expect Spring Creek Rd maybe shut down for a period of time as well.

The scenario played out by Mt. Holly will be a winter weather advisory but do not be surprised if we get more snow or ice to go a winter storm warning and a flash flood watch or urban flood warning for us.  The amounts of snow and ice are difficult for even MIKEY to call on this storm event but I gave you my best forecast and scenario n on how it will play out. The plow driver will have a field day on this event plowing slush and snow on Tuesday morning. This will be the last snow event for a while.

There is a chance that the rain may turn back to snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday as the storm pulls away and deepens. If it does snow, the snow would accumulate on the grass for a couple of inches or more as the streets maybe too wet and warm for accumulation, especially if  the streets do not have enough time to dry out between the changeover or if it snows heavily with the expected big flakes. We deserve another surprise right?  A six inch snow event is not unheard of after this type of storm event  but you just never know.  Stay dry

For my weather friends in Memphis- sorry I was wrong about getting snow today, The storm was warmer and further north. Two weeks advance notice sometimes goes wrong. The boot hill of Missouri and northern TN received all your snow today.







Tuesday, February 9, 2016

DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THE SNOW EVENT TODAY----- WORRY THAT IT IS GOING TO GET REAL REAL COLD-BRR

After this storm event today, this snow will be around for awhile. I am still sticking with my original 4-8 inch call from several days ago with us in LMT being closer to four to six inches.

An alberta clipper/arctic cold front comes through on Friday. IT WILL BE COLD AND YOU WILL KNOW IT as the the highs will only be in the low teens while the lows go below zero. Snow showers too may result in an inch of snow as the front goes through. Shovel all the snow you can off your driveways because it is not going to melt this time.

Another possible snow event comes around Presidents Day. I will keep you informed. Keep warm this weekend.

Monday, February 8, 2016

SOMETIMES I JUST HAVE TO CRITICIZE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT MT HOLLY NJ

I know I am shooting myself in the foot, but about twenty years ago when  the National Weather Service office was eliminated at the airport, I was one of the few who fiercely objected. I knew that transferring the regional forecasting office for the metro Lehigh Valley to an office in Southern New Jersey was not going to cut it for us. This was because of the geographic conditions that reside in  the metro Lehigh Valley. In the past few years, Mt. Holly NJ  office has had an extreme bias for Philadelphia and southern New Jersey to get their forecasting correct and issuing watches and warnings but to hell with it when it comes to the Lehigh Valley. Their simple answer is we will just adjust the forecasting especially the watches and warnings as the storm evolves, leaving  us simply stranded with no reliable forecasting for major storm events.  FAILURE TO PLAN IS PLANNING TO FAIL.

I was not the only one who felt this way and with this lapse in accurate weather forecasting together with the invention of social networking, the Eastern PA Weather Association was born, the most reliable weather forecasting in the Lehigh Valley. I trust them a thousand percent more than Mt Holly. I have also been booted off many social weather forum for simply airing out the geographic mistakes of  Mt Holly forecasts. The idiot youngsters call this "weather bashing" and of course they were a just a dream when people my age were using their forecasting skills instead of relying on five different computer models.  I am not faulting the current weather forecasters personally at Mt Holly, its just that they have little geographic background and more mathematical background when it comes to regional forecasting- relying more on the various computer models and not enough on the diverse geographic conditions that affect forecasting as in the metro Lehigh Valley. You maybe asking yourself why I am on this tangent now?

Lets go back to the recent blizzard.  Mt. Holly weather forecasting office for the umpteenth time upgraded the LV to a winter storm warning and then to a blizzard warning in the middle of the storm event. This all occurred during the middle of the night and early morning as well.  By then its too late, the cities of Allentown, Reading  and Bethlehem are crying they were never notified in time to prepare.  Whats being done to rectify this problem? Absolutely nothing. Mt. Holly has simply ignored the fact that over one million people live in the metro Lehigh Valley which includes Lehigh, Northampton and Berks Counties. I have heard all of the excuses like it was not supposed to hit here or was a difficult storm to forecast but tell that to that the guy who died shoveling out the 30 inches of snow that 'UNEXPECTEDLY FELL" in Berks county. Enough is enough and the one million residents of the metro Lehigh Valley Region deserve and demand better forecasting, especially when it comes to issuing watches from their National Weather Service. Thank god many people rely on EPAWA.

I just want you know why I am bringing attention to the critical issue. The Mt Holly office again has issued a winter storm watch for Chester County and Philly area where they are forecasting nearly nine inches of snow. The Lehigh Valley is supposed to get only three inches. Because of the geographic conditions and the fact that this is a storm is originating from the west instead of the south many models are anticipating an inverted trough to set up over southern PA. In an inverted trough, the storm event usually is topography natured as well (terrain geography) which helps to enhance snowfall  rates (e.g.  hills/mountains can assist in forcing air upward creating more lifting and heavier snowfall rates).

Experience tells me and other good meteorologists you cannot rely on computer models alone especially when the storm event is over twenty-four hours away.  So if you simply do not know, the proper thing you do is you put your entire region under a winter storm watch and upgrade to a winter storm warning as the event unfolds in the applicable areas so the major cities like Allentown have ample time to prepare for snow removal as the trough forms. This is perfectly understandable. The Lehigh Valley is left out of the watch again and if the inverted trough sets up over our area, we could easily get a foot of snow. We could go to no watch to a warning in a an eight hour period during the middle of the night. I guess we will see what happens but geographical conditions usually indicate that if an inverted trough sets up over Eastern PA it runs southeast to northwest which puts everyone in our area at risk of seeing a heavy snowfall event. That is why I push for common sense when forecasting instead of relying  so called "CONFIDENCE LEVELS"  Confidence levels are found in statistical analysis models. Weather forecasting for issuing watches should never be based on this alone. Most of all Mt. Holly needs to recognize that the metro Lehigh Valley exists and the million people who reside here want to trust the weather service for prompt issuance of watches and warnings.




Sunday, February 7, 2016

BY THE HAIR ON MY CHINNY CHIN CHIN

We just missed getting hit by a blizzard tomorrow that went out to sea that was just as strong as the one in January. By the way, it did snow Friday in Montgomery and Berks County to the south of us in the LV and left a coating to an inch but melted pretty quick.

Whats for us in the LV the next few days?  More rumors of a big snow event - LMAO. I am predicting between 4-8 inches of snow depending on where the the heavier snow bands set up for Tuesday. In a normal storm event like this, someone will get much more snow- even from county to county. Otherwise- to my plow friends- just enough to plow the parking lots and enough to for municipalities and PennDot to use salt. The storm will be of a long duration  with off and on snow showers. I expect two hour delays for the schools on Wednesday and maybe early dismissal on Tuesday. Traffic will be a nightmare on Wednesday morning.

Beware after this snow event, the bottom drops out on the temperatures. The lows will be near zero for a few days and highs barely making the mid-20's. The next snow event looks around Valentines Day. Keep warm

Thursday, February 4, 2016

DARN, I KEEP SECOND GUESSING MYSELF- MORE SNOW BY MORNING?

A couple of weeks ago I said it was going to snow on the 5th. Well, it looks like it will. Only a few inches of snow if we are real lucky though- a dusting compared to what we had two weeks ago. I even saw the potential for snow last night in the models but as I said "you never know" in my facebook posting yesterday.  It still looks like a potential of six inches or more for Monday- Tuesday as well.  Any snow that falls tomorrow will melt quickly if the sun comes in the afternoon. I will keep updated for the Monday storm and a bigger potential around Presidents day. Plan accordingly. Thanks





Tuesday, February 2, 2016

FLOODING THEN BACK TO WINTER

While , this two foot of snowpack has to go somewhere and it looks like the Little Lehigh will be the beneficiary come Wednesday night. During the day on Wednesday we will see periods of heavy rain, maybe even a thunderstorm. With nearly 2.5" of  liquid precipitation tied into the snow pack in combination with nearly 2" of rain, flooding is a good bet.  Basements should be monitored and I expect Spring Creek Rd to be under water for a few days or more. Lake Aster will be around for at least a week. We are currently under a flash flood watch which I expect will turn into a an urban stream flood warning for us in Lower Macungie Wednesday night.

We should expect Spring Rd to be barricaded on both ends and maybe even on the residential roads of Ancient Oaks. Wild Cherry Rd and maybe even Macungie Rd bridges will be barricaded if the water level is high enough. Mill Creek Rd might even be barricaded as the Walmart River starts flowing across Spring Creek Rd. What makes this flooding bad is that the ground is still frozen, so little runoff will soak into the ground until Thursday, when it starts freezing again. To you and me thats like 90%  runoff and the streams are just not geared to handle this volume of water. Stormwater basins will be full and it will be awhile for the flood waters to recede and basins to empty.

Well I must apologize on my forecast for the next round of snow storms in the upcoming weeks. They will start a couple of days later than I thought -from February 8-15 and may continue all the way into March. So the grass you see this week should be covered by next week some time. I expect maybe one or two  6+ inch storm events and one of them maybe  a 12+ inch storm around Presidents Day. It will be winter again.



Thursday, January 28, 2016

OUT TO SEA- CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

Everyone needs a break from shoveling. Other than a period of light snow tomorrow- a brief but much needed warm up is on the way-the infamous January thaw takes place for us in the LV.

Next week,we will see temps rise into the 50's- goodbye to much of the snow with some rain showers and of course the real snow eater- dense fog. Fog will destroy a snowpack faster than anything else So be careful driving this weekend into next week as the snow melts. I expect dense fog advisories over several days.

But do not hang up the shovel or blowers just yet.  Another round of wintry weather comes our way between February 5-10 as the weather pattern reloads for additional possibilities for  6"+ snow storms. We may see the grass only briefly next week but I would rather see a slow melt now. I will keep you updated later next week on these possibilities after the cold front goes through to bring the temps from the middle 50's back down into the 20's and 30's for highs. Its after the cold front goes by, usually 2-3 days later we get the potential snowstorm.

I want to personally thank Lower Macungie Township and its staff  for the great job on notifying its residents about the weather emergency and for plowing and removable of snow. Planning and being on the ball went along way in this storm event, unlike Allentown which completely dropped the ball.


Sunday, January 24, 2016

READY FOR SOME MORE?

Friday into Saturday is starting to look promising if you like more snow  Yes, a cold front is crossing on Wed. nite with a minor snowfall but a fresh high will be needed to keep the arctic air in place: "Predict the high, predict the snow." Ok, what am I seeing so far?
I can track the energy on the satellite... mainly on the water vapor loop imagery. And the new low pressure system  forming over the Gulf of Mexico in this time frame is not the most ideal route but if continues its heading generally NE/NNE over the Gulf, I'm ok with it. I noticed the low redevelops in the left exit region of the southern jet stream off the NC coast, which is very good because of the warmer waters in this area. The Euro model  ensembles show many of the low pressures sampling to the west along the coast at this time.
As for the required high pressure to make this work, I noticed that the Pacific high and an Arctic high (located due N of the AK-Canadian border) will interact. I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.
BOTTOM LINE
This storm will form.  I'm liking the set-up, considering we're five days out, but more agreement and more ideal circumstances (high to the N & nor'easter track near the Carolinas) needs to occur by Tuesday evening.  Note that the 1993 Superstorm is a good analogue to this event, but be careful how you communicate all this at this time. It could just go out to sea and not affect us as well . But as I said in my posts in facebook, you must plan for where you might have to put another 12+ inches of snow.

The next few days, homeowners insurance claims will be made with water damage from the icicles and snow weight. Will not be surprised if we are declared a federal disaster area, especially if we get another storm.







Friday, January 22, 2016

LATEST UPDATE- SHOULD HAVE STUCK WITH MY ORIGINAL THOUGHTS- I DO THIS ALL THE TIME

This was my post on Monday in italics below. Please notice that I originally stated  18-24 inches of snow for this event. The only changes to my original post was the starting times and that I thought more dry air would be entrained and give us less snow as depicted in the models on Thursday morning, which I reduced to 14 inches. Now I see everyone is seeing it my way and have raised their snow totals up in the past 12 hours. My first guess appears to be the best guess and I base this on weather history such as how the 1996 storm unfolded. Even tonight like the 1996 storm snow has been reported from Memphis to the panhandle of Florida. 

What should we expect now as final call ------actually my first call on my Monday's blog below and depicted the original snow accumulation map below, except the ending time will be Sunday afternoon. Thats the best I can give you now. Keep on eye on the thundersnow too.

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday morning into the afternoon- picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the road by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay.

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer--- snow will start falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals

3. The storm will finally be finished by Saturday evening but not after  between 18-24 inches of snow for us in the LV with lollipops of three feet. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 10 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds.

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined Thursday afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townshouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still three days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amount. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then. If I wrong - lamb baste me for I would deserve it.  Good luck and will keep you apprised of future changes as the storm progresses

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

UPDATE: BLIZZARD OF 2016 - CHANGES IN RED

MY ORIGINAL PREDICTION IS STILL ON TRACK  ---SOME CHANGES HIGHLIGHTED

Well, the snow hype that I predicted over the course of the last couple months is coming to fruition. I hate to say I told you so, but here it comes. My earlier post stated a storm of 6 or more inches of snow for the end of the week into early next week. Well it is coming, right on cue. I want to remind my readers that this prediction was even before the models had shown the storm?  But how did I know- the ingredients to make the storm plus weather history played a key factor in my predictions.

Regardless, there is now an 80-90 percent chance of  how I feel this storm will play out based on current weather conditions:

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday in the LATE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT -  picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the roads by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay. This is called "Bombing Out"

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer it will fall like a rock--- snow will start falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals, the closer you get to Philly and the coast

3. The storm will finally be finished by Sunday evening but not after  between 10-14 inches of snow for us in the LV with more snow the closer you are to Philly. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 5 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds. The winds will gust over 35 mph at times making it seem like a blizzard

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined late Thursday afternoon or Friday morning into the late afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townhouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still two days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amount. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then.

I am calling in Eastern PA for the formation of a deformation band/inverted trough as the low pressure goes into a negative tilt which may enhance snowfall totals  and create the lollipops in heavier snow totals.  You may even see thundersnow.

Finally, do not drive anywhere Friday night into Sunday. Plows will only concentrate on RT 100 and the interstates and of course WAWA. They must keep them open and will be difficult with the winds and blowing snow. Plow trains will be a common scene on the news along with the drifting and big snowflakes which we have not seen in a long time. The snow ratios will be discussed in earnest and the closer to Philly and the coast, the bigger the snowflakes unless the aforementioned happens with the formation of the inverted trough/deformation band. Coastal beach erosion and flooding of course is a real big concern and will be one for the record books- rivaling Sandy's damage. Summer beach goers may have a tough summer this year on the Jersey shore with the sand gone in many locations and flooding of the houses.



Monday, January 18, 2016

HOPE YOU ARE READY TO SHOVEL?

Well, the snow hype that I predicted over the course of the last couple months is coming to fruition. I hate to say I told you so, but here it comes. My last post stated a storm of 6 or more inches of snow for the end of the week into early next week. Well it is coming, right on cue. I want to remind my readers that this prediction was even before the models had shown the storm?  But how did I know- the ingredients to make the storm plus weather history played a key factor in my predictions.

Regardless, there is a 60-70 percent chance of  how I feel this storm will play out based on current weather conditions:

1. It should start snowing lightly Friday morning into the afternoon- picking up intensity as the day goes on. Everyone should be off the road by evening if at all possible. During the early evening and well into Friday night the storm intensity will increase dramatically as the low pressure begins to bomb out off the Atlantic Coast near Maryland and VA. What makes this storm even more powerful is that is located in the sweet spot for us to receive heavy snow in the LV right which is right near the headwaters of  the Chesapeake Bay.

2. As the storm bombs out and pressure drops big time---look at your barometer--- snow will sart falling heavier and the winds will increase significantly from the NE. Blizzard or white out  conditions will most likely be achieved in areas in the LV or E  Central PA. I definitely would  expect to see areas  to achieve thundersnow with the current soundings indicating this to be a good possibility.  Heavy sleet may even mix in at times in the heavier snow bands but may cut down on snow accumulation totals

3. The storm will finally be finished by Saturday evening but not after  between 18-24 inches of snow for us in the LV with lollipops of three feet. I would expect this based on the models shown today but totals can go down in this type of scenario so this only a best guess at this time. This does not include drifting which could be as high  as 10 feet in the Lehigh Valley depending on the winds.

4. This storm has a real good chance to be a record snowfall storm at this time but it is still to early to tell. We just have to see but after 18 inches of snow whats another foot?

5. More storms to follow this one so get your rest.

6. The roads will be brined Thursday afternoon. Snow emergencies will be issued in LMT and other municipalities. Any car on the street deserves to be towed no excuses. Give our plow drivers a chance to keep up-- they will need it. And do not be surprised if you see a v-plow or snow chute to clear out the townshouses. It is expected after 20 inches of snow.

7 Lastly, what if I am wrong? The only wrong prediction will be the amount of snow which can vary greatly when the storm is still three days out or if we get dry slotted- which can happen if the storm deepens too much. I admit to all my readers on the front end that I said six inches or more days ago. I was pretty dam sure of the time frame and minimum amout. What makes this storm more critical is the fact that three major computer models hit on this storm formation in my predicted time frame. The last time I remember this happening was in 1996 and you know what happen then. If I wrong - lamb baste me for I would deserve it.  Good luck and will keep you apprised of future changes as the storm progresses


Saturday, January 16, 2016

OK, ITS TIME TO GET WINTER GOING

Even though winter has officially started in the Lehigh Valley, many are hard pressed to say it has really begun without accumulating snow on the ground. When a one inch snow steals the headlines in the Morning Call, we are  really desperate to call this a winter.

In many of my facebook posts the past few months, I have told readers that winter would not really start until the middle of January. It started this week with the brief but heavy snow squall that caused hundreds of accidents, left about an inch of snow on the ground and brought temperatures back to winter reality. Right on cue in my eyes. But happens next you ponder?  Explained below is what I have been saying since early December

The winter pattern must lock in. It is still trying to lock in this week and still has a little bit more to go. The southern jets stream which brings all of the storms into our area in an EL Nino year is settling in place while the northern jet stream is still in Canada. When the two merge in the next few weeks,    (called phasing) snow storms chances will become more abundant in the eastern US, especially for our area.  What are the keys to look for?  Low pressure systems forming along the edge of a stalled cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and Four Corner Low pressures forming in Arizona/ New Mexico/Colorado/Utah being injected into the mid -south area (Dallas to Nashville) to be carried into the mid-atlantic coast areas shortly after a arctic front passes us.

What can be expected?  More rumors of  blizzards. heavy snowfall events will become the headlines in social media as we go into February all the way to middle March. Will it get bitter cold? Yes but only for short durations which is typical  in an El Nino year as Pacific  storm systems that dominate our weather pattern. Expect snow on the ground for awhile through February into March. Plow drivers will finally see overtime going into February.  As the El Nino pattern finally disintegrates this spring, expect rounds of severe weather in the southern and middle US, including severe tornadoes and heavy rainfall for us in the northeast with cool and cloudy days  with chances of snow into early April.

The results of this wild weather pattern thus far?  Bulbs are already sprouting, buds forming on fruit trees and weeds making though the winter with the insects. Hopefully we get a good snow base in February to kill the stink bugs. Our poor ski resorts  will take a hit until we finally get a good snowstorm. But when will that be?

I  am calling for our first legitimate accumulating six inch or more snow storm between Jan 22- January 26. After that the pattern should be locked in to bring a parade of snow storm chances into our area and  I feel pretty confident this time. Mikey tries to be accurate